New Orleans Pelicans at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Jonas ValanciunasPoints29
- Brandon IngramAssists7
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds13
Hornets- Terry RozierPoints30
- Terry RozierAssists6
- Miles BridgesRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–107
- Q44.1CJ McCollum enters the game for Dyson Daniels112–107
- Q44.1Pelicans defensive team rebound112–107
- Q46.1Terry Rozier misses 26-foot three point jumper112–107
- Q48.0Hornets Full timeout112–107
- Q48.0Brandon Ingram makes free throw 2 of 2112–107
- Q48.0Dyson Daniels enters the game for CJ McCollum111–107
- Q48.0Naji Marshall enters the game for Jonas Valanciunas111–107
- Q48.0Nick Richards enters the game for JT Thor111–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q30.2Jose Alvarado makes 26-foot three point jumper (Brandon Ingram assists)NO 76 – 76 CHA · NO 45% → 57% +12NO 45% → 57%+12 pts
- Q410:44CJ McCollum makes 24-foot running pullup jump shot (Jose Alvarado assists)NO 81 – 78 CHA · NO 57% → 69% +12NO 57% → 69%+12 pts
- Q49:16CJ McCollum makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jonas Valanciunas assists)NO 86 – 80 CHA · NO 70% → 81% +11NO 70% → 81%+11 pts
- Q43:41Nick Richards makes 1-foot dunk (Gordon Hayward assists)NO 100 – 96 CHA · CHA 11% → 20% +9CHA 11% → 20%+9 pts
- Q43:20CJ McCollum makes 1-foot two point shot (Jonas Valanciunas assists)NO 102 – 96 CHA · NO 81% → 90% +9NO 81% → 90%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pelicans 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -6
- NO 73%
- Fair odds
- NO -181
- CHA +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 119.0 – 114.5 CHA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1406 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +90 | +6 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +169 Elo | NO 72.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 63.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 64.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30114.9 | Points scored | 113.019th of 30 |
| 17th of 30114.2 | Points allowed | 120.826th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −7.827th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.9 | Offense rating | 111.220th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.3 | Defense rating | 118.929th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.7 | Pace | 101.117th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 16th of 305–7 | Road vs home | 4–824th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+90 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.