Charlotte Hornets at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Terry RozierPoints28
- Terry RozierAssists7
- Nick RichardsRebounds10
Heat- Duncan RobinsonPoints23
- Jimmy Butler IIIAssists10
- Thomas BryantRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–115
- Q48.1shot clock turnover104–115
- Q433.0Miles Bridges makes 22-foot step back jumpshot (Terry Rozier assists)104–115
- Q444.1Duncan Robinson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)101–115
- Q451.0Hornets Full timeout101–112
- Q451.0Heat offensive team rebound101–112
- Q451.0Thomas Bryant misses two point shot101–112
- Q452.2Thomas Bryant offensive rebound101–112
- Q453.0Thomas Bryant misses dunk101–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:21Gordon Hayward makes 26-foot three point jumper (Miles Bridges assists)CHA 10 – 7 MIA · CHA 31% → 37% +6CHA 31% → 37%+6 pts
- Q18:59Duncan Robinson makes 24-foot three pointer (Orlando Robinson assists)CHA 10 – 10 MIA · MIA 63% → 69% +6MIA 63% → 69%+6 pts
- Q211:05Duncan Robinson makes three point jumper (Caleb Martin assists)CHA 25 – 27 MIA · MIA 65% → 71% +7MIA 65% → 71%+7 pts
- Q22:22Kyle Lowry makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler assists)CHA 45 – 48 MIA · MIA 65% → 72% +7MIA 65% → 72%+7 pts
- Q21:39Duncan Robinson makes 22-foot three point jumper (Caleb Martin assists)CHA 45 – 51 MIA · MIA 72% → 79% +7MIA 72% → 79%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Heat 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -7
- MIA 76%
- Fair odds
- MIA -231
- CHA +231 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 111.9 – 118.3 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1411 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −10 | +49 | CHA: Missing Frank Ntilikina −2 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · MIA: Missing Bam Adebayo −18 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +203 Elo | MIA 76.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 69.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 69.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30113.4 | Points scored | 112.621st of 30 |
| 26th of 30121.0 | Points allowed | 111.79th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−7.6 | Margin | +0.916th of 30 |
| 19th of 30111.5 | Offense rating | 113.512th of 30 |
| 29th of 30119.0 | Defense rating | 112.618th of 30 |
| 15th of 30101.1 | Pace | 99.226th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 21st of 303–6 | Road vs home | 5–417th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−10 Elo- Frank Ntilikina left tibia−2 Elo
Heat
+49 Elo- Bam Adebayo left hip injury−18 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHA 0–2 MIA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.