Toronto Raptors at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints31
- Scottie BarnesAssists10
- Scottie BarnesRebounds10
Hornets- Gordon HaywardPoints24
- Terry RozierAssists13
- Miles BridgesRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–119
- Q40.0Terry Rozier defensive rebound116–119
- Q40.0Scottie Barnes misses 21-foot pullup jump shot116–119
- Q47.1Gary Trent Jr. enters the game for Precious Achiuwa116–119
- Q47.1P.J. Washington enters the game for Nick Richards116–119
- Q47.1Raptors Full timeout114–119
- Q47.1Terry Rozier makes free throw 2 of 2114–119
- Q47.1Terry Rozier makes free throw 1 of 2114–118
- Q47.1Scottie Barnes personal take foul114–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:23Terry Rozier makes 26-foot three point jumper (Brandon Miller assists)TOR 103 – 104 CHA · CHA 35% → 56% +20CHA 35% → 56%+20 pts
- Q42:17Scottie Barnes makes 3-foot driving floating jump shotTOR 110 – 111 CHA · TOR 24% → 41% +17TOR 24% → 41%+17 pts
- Q41:58Brandon Miller makes 27-foot three point jumper (Terry Rozier assists)TOR 110 – 114 CHA · CHA 59% → 84% +25CHA 59% → 84%+25 pts
- Q41:14Scottie Barnes makes alley oop layup (Pascal Siakam assists)TOR 114 – 115 CHA · TOR 17% → 38% +21TOR 17% → 38%+21 pts
- Q422.0Terry Rozier makes 22-foot step back jumpshotTOR 114 – 117 CHA · CHA 72% → 96% +24CHA 72% → 96%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Raptors 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -2.5
- TOR 60%
- Fair odds
- TOR -118
- CHA +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 115.5 – 114.3 CHA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1407 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +27 | −5 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Missing LaMelo Ball −17 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | CHA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | TOR +70 Elo | TOR 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30110.8 | Points scored | 113.117th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.5 | Points allowed | 121.626th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−1.7 | Margin | −8.527th of 30 |
| 24th of 30109.2 | Offense rating | 110.721st of 30 |
| 12th of 30110.9 | Defense rating | 119.029th of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.3 | Pace | 101.513th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 21st of 303–6 | Road vs home | 3–725th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
−5 Elo- LaMelo Ball right ankle sprain−17 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.