Miami Heat at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Caleb MartinPoints24
- Jimmy Butler IIIAssists8
- Caleb MartinRebounds12
Raptors- Pascal SiakamPoints30
- Pascal SiakamAssists6
- Scottie BarnesRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–103
- Q412.1Orlando Robinson defensive rebound112–103
- Q415.1O.G. Anunoby misses 25-foot step back jumpshot112–103
- Q422.2Orlando Robinson makes free throw 2 of 2112–103
- Q422.2Orlando Robinson makes free throw 1 of 2111–103
- Q422.2Scottie Barnes personal foul110–103
- Q428.0Pascal Siakam makes two point shot110–103
- Q428.0Pascal Siakam offensive rebound110–101
- Q430.1Gary Trent Jr. misses 24-foot three point jumper110–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:41Scottie Barnes makes 28-foot three point jumper (Gary Trent Jr. assists)MIA 87 – 87 TOR · TOR 37% → 51% +14TOR 37% → 51%+14 pts
- Q45:14Scottie Barnes makes 26-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)MIA 97 – 92 TOR · TOR 11% → 22% +11TOR 11% → 22%+11 pts
- Q43:25Orlando Robinson makes 6-foot two point shot (Jimmy Butler assists)MIA 99 – 94 TOR · MIA 72% → 83% +12MIA 72% → 83%+12 pts
- Q43:02Pascal Siakam makes 6-foot two point shotMIA 99 – 96 TOR · TOR 15% → 27% +12TOR 15% → 27%+12 pts
- Q42:44Duncan Robinson makes 23-foot step back jumpshot (Jimmy Butler assists)MIA 102 – 96 TOR · MIA 74% → 90% +16MIA 74% → 90%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Raptors 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -0.5
- TOR 49%
- Fair odds
- TOR -107
- MIA +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 112.3 – 112.8 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +40 | +38 | MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +8 Elo | MIA 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 51.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30113.1 | Points scored | 111.225th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.0 | Points allowed | 112.513th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.1 | Margin | −1.322nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30113.9 | Offense rating | 109.424th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.8 | Defense rating | 110.712th of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.3 | Pace | 100.419th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–6 | Road vs home | 6–519th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
+38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.