Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints27
- Donovan MitchellAssists6
- Donovan MitchellRebounds13
Heat- Kyle LowryPoints17
- Kyle LowryAssists5
- Kevin LoveRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–99
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–99
- Q419.1Max Strus defensive rebound111–99
- Q424.0Kyle Lowry misses 24-foot three point jumper111–99
- Q432.1Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2111–99
- Q432.1Cavaliers offensive team rebound110–99
- Q432.1Donovan Mitchell misses free throw 1 of 2110–99
- Q432.1Kyle Lowry personal take foul110–99
- Q435.1Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes driving layup110–99
- Q441.0Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2110–97
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q23:16Dean Wade makes 22-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)CLE 44 – 44 MIA · CLE 37% → 45% +8CLE 37% → 45%+8 pts
- Q22:46Kevin Love makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)CLE 44 – 47 MIA · MIA 55% → 63% +8MIA 55% → 63%+8 pts
- Q21:29Sam Merrill makes 24-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)CLE 51 – 50 MIA · CLE 39% → 48% +8CLE 39% → 48%+8 pts
- Q311:39Donovan Mitchell makes 26-foot running pullup jump shotCLE 56 – 52 MIA · CLE 48% → 57% +9CLE 48% → 57%+9 pts
- Q311:10Donovan Mitchell makes 27-foot three point jumper (Darius Garland assists)CLE 59 – 52 MIA · CLE 57% → 66% +9CLE 57% → 66%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Heat 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -2.5
- MIA 59%
- Fair odds
- MIA -132
- CLE +132 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 110.7 – 112.8 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +33 | +43 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +64 Elo | MIA 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 57.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30111.3 | Points scored | 113.018th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.1 | Points allowed | 111.611th of 30 |
| 18th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.515th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30110.2 | Offense rating | 113.911th of 30 |
| 9th of 30110.1 | Defense rating | 112.418th of 30 |
| 21st of 30100.2 | Pace | 99.226th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 2nd of 306–3 | Road vs home | 5–313th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 0–1 MIA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.