Orlando Magic at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints42
- Franz WagnerAssists9
- Cole AnthonyRebounds7
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints35
- Darius GarlandAssists9
- Jarrett AllenRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–121
- Q41.1shot clock turnover111–121
- Q425.2Caleb Houstan loose ball foul111–121
- Q425.2Cavaliers defensive team rebound111–121
- Q426.1Paolo Banchero misses 25-foot three point jumper111–121
- Q429.1Franz Wagner offensive rebound111–121
- Q432.1Franz Wagner misses 7-foot jumper111–121
- Q438.1Evan Mobley makes 2-foot dunk (Darius Garland assists)111–121
- Q448.1Paolo Banchero makes driving layup (Cole Anthony assists)111–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:23Max Strus makes 25-foot three point jumper (Evan Mobley assists)ORL 6 – 10 CLE · CLE 53% → 59% +6CLE 53% → 59%+6 pts
- Q18:39Max Strus makes 26-foot three point jumper (Darius Garland assists)ORL 8 – 13 CLE · CLE 55% → 61% +6CLE 55% → 61%+6 pts
- Q37:30Paolo Banchero makes 24-foot three pointerORL 70 – 75 CLE · ORL 25% → 34% +8ORL 25% → 34%+8 pts
- Q35:53Donovan Mitchell makes 28-foot three point jumper (Georges Niang assists)ORL 72 – 83 CLE · CLE 75% → 83% +7CLE 75% → 83%+7 pts
- Q32:54Donovan Mitchell makes 24-foot three point jumperORL 78 – 89 CLE · CLE 77% → 85% +7CLE 77% → 85%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cavaliers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -1
- CLE 46%
- Fair odds
- CLE -102
- ORL +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 111.7 – 111.8 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1563 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +47 | +46 | ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +28 Elo | ORL 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 50.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30114.3 | Points scored | 110.825th of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.0 | Points allowed | 111.28th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+4.3 | Margin | −0.419th of 30 |
| 18th of 30111.5 | Offense rating | 109.822nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30107.3 | Defense rating | 110.110th of 30 |
| 6th of 30102.5 | Pace | 100.221st of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 7th of 305–4 | Road vs home | 5–622nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.