Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Duncan RobinsonPoints24
- Jimmy Butler IIIAssists8
- Caleb MartinRebounds9
Hornets- Terry RozierPoints34
- Terry RozierAssists13
- P.J. WashingtonRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–114
- Q40.0Hornets offensive team rebound116–114
- Q40.0Terry Rozier misses 43-foot three point pullup jump shot116–114
- Q44.1Jimmy Butler makes free throw 2 of 2116–114
- Q44.1Heat offensive team rebound115–114
- Q44.1Jimmy Butler misses free throw 1 of 2115–114
- Q44.1Terry Rozier personal foul115–114
- Q47.1Heat offensive team rebound115–114
- Q47.1P.J. Washington blocks Jimmy Butler 's 3-foot layup115–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:53Terry Rozier makes 26-foot three pointerMIA 96 – 95 CHA · CHA 27% → 42% +15CHA 27% → 42%+15 pts
- Q45:01Gordon Hayward makes 14-foot pullup jump shot (Terry Rozier assists)MIA 100 – 99 CHA · CHA 29% → 41% +12CHA 29% → 41%+12 pts
- Q44:36Kyle Lowry makes 25-foot three pointerMIA 103 – 99 CHA · MIA 59% → 77% +18MIA 59% → 77%+18 pts
- Q42:37Brandon Miller makes 22-foot three point jumper (P.J. Washington assists)MIA 109 – 105 CHA · CHA 5% → 18% +12CHA 5% → 18%+12 pts
- Q49.0Terry Rozier makes free throw 2 of 2MIA 115 – 114 CHA · CHA 3% → 17% +14CHA 3% → 17%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Heat 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -4
- MIA 65%
- Fair odds
- MIA -133
- CHA +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 116.1 – 113.9 CHA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1414 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +27 | −17 | MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +110 Elo | MIA 65.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 57.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30112.4 | Points scored | 113.417th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.5 | Points allowed | 121.326th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −7.926th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.2 | Offense rating | 111.120th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.3 | Defense rating | 118.929th of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.4 | Pace | 101.414th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 10th of 307–6 | Road vs home | 4–724th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
−17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 1–0 CHA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.