Memphis Grizzlies at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Ja MorantPoints31
- Ja MorantAssists7
- Jaren Jackson Jr.Rebounds10
Pelicans- Brandon IngramPoints24
- Brandon IngramAssists7
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds13
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game116–115
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime116–115
- OT0.0(00:00) [Grizzlies] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)116–115
- OT0.1CJ McCollum makes 26-foot three pointer116–115
- OT3.2Desmond Bane makes free throw 2 of 2116–112
- OT3.2Xavier Tillman enters the game for Vince Williams Jr.115–112
- OT3.2Zion Williamson enters the game for Dyson Daniels115–112
- OT3.2Grizzlies offensive team rebound115–112
- OT3.2Desmond Bane misses free throw 1 of 2115–112
- OT3.2Dyson Daniels personal take foul115–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q433.1Desmond Bane makes 22-foot three point jumper (Marcus Smart assists)MEM 102 – 103 NO · MEM 2% → 29% +27MEM 2% → 29%+27 pts
- Q40.1Jaren Jackson Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2MEM 103 – 103 NO · MEM 0% → 50% +50MEM 0% → 50%+50 pts
- OT2:08Ja Morant makes 8-foot driving floating jump shotMEM 109 – 107 NO · MEM 45% → 64% +19MEM 45% → 64%+19 pts
- OT1:43Brandon Ingram makes 20-foot two point shot (Herbert Jones assists)MEM 109 – 109 NO · NO 33% → 54% +21NO 33% → 54%+21 pts
- OT1:18Jaren Jackson Jr. makes driving layupMEM 111 – 109 NO · MEM 46% → 70% +24MEM 46% → 70%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pelicans 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -7.5
- NO 76%
- Fair odds
- NO -261
- MEM +261 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 107.8 – 115.1 NO
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1454 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +15 | +105 | MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +204 Elo | NO 76.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 71.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 72.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30107.0 | Points scored | 115.713th of 30 |
| 9th of 30112.4 | Points allowed | 113.313th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−5.3 | Margin | +2.411th of 30 |
| 29th of 30105.3 | Offense rating | 114.115th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.6 | Defense rating | 111.711th of 30 |
| 15th of 30101.2 | Pace | 101.313th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 14th of 307–8 | Road vs home | 9–614th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+105 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MEM 1–1 NO in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.