Indiana Pacers at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Obi ToppinPoints22
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists14
- Buddy HieldRebounds6
Grizzlies- Desmond BanePoints31
- Ja MorantAssists8
- Jaren Jackson Jr.Rebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–116
- Q41.1shot clock turnover103–116
- Q425.1Buddy Hield makes 24-foot step back jumpshot (Bennedict Mathurin assists)103–116
- Q429.1Bennedict Mathurin defensive rebound100–116
- Q433.1Isaiah Jackson blocks Desmond Bane 's 25-foot step back jumpshot100–116
- Q456.1Isaiah Jackson makes layup (Bennedict Mathurin assists)100–116
- Q41:04Desmond Bane makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ja Morant assists)98–116
- Q41:27Grizzlies defensive team rebound98–113
- Q41:30Obi Toppin misses 26-foot three point jumper98–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q39:08Desmond Bane makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jaren Jackson Jr. assists)IND 65 – 65 MEM · MEM 38% → 48% +9MEM 38% → 48%+9 pts
- Q36:25Desmond Bane makes three point jumper (Ja Morant assists)IND 69 – 74 MEM · MEM 54% → 64% +10MEM 54% → 64%+10 pts
- Q34:01Aaron Nesmith makes 25-foot three pointerIND 74 – 78 MEM · IND 28% → 38% +10IND 28% → 38%+10 pts
- Q32:23Aaron Nesmith makes 27-foot three point shot (Buddy Hield assists)IND 77 – 78 MEM · IND 37% → 48% +11IND 37% → 48%+11 pts
- Q32.2Ziaire Williams makes 25-foot three point jumperIND 77 – 86 MEM · MEM 72% → 81% +9MEM 72% → 81%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pacers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -1.5
- IND 56%
- Fair odds
- IND -116
- MEM +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 120.2 – 119.1 MEM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1430 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | IND on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +63 | −10 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · MEM: Missing Derrick Rose −5 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +40 Elo | IND 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 53.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30127.3 | Points scored | 106.030th of 30 |
| 29th of 30126.4 | Points allowed | 112.511th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −6.524th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30119.6 | Offense rating | 104.330th of 30 |
| 28th of 30118.8 | Defense rating | 110.79th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.5 | Pace | 101.215th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 11th of 306–6 | Road vs home | 1–1129th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+63 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
−10 Elo- Derrick Rose left hamstring strain−5 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.