Charlotte Hornets at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Terry RozierPoints25
- Terry RozierAssists7
- Terry RozierRebounds9
Pacers- Buddy HieldPoints25
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists13
- Myles TurnerRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–144
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–144
- Q414.0Nick Smith Jr. makes 5-foot two point shot113–144
- Q415.0Nathan Mensah offensive rebound111–144
- Q417.1Nick Smith Jr. misses 25-foot three point jumper111–144
- Q429.1James Johnson makes 9-foot two point shot111–144
- Q453.0JT Thor makes free throw 2 of 2111–142
- Q453.0JT Thor makes free throw 1 of 2110–142
- Q453.0Jordan Nwora shooting foul109–142
- Q41:04Jordan Nwora makes 1-foot layup (James Johnson assists)109–142
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q211:18Jalen Smith makes 26-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)CHA 31 – 34 IND · IND 68% → 75% +6IND 68% → 75%+6 pts
- Q210:01Jalen Smith makes 23-foot three point jumper (Aaron Nesmith assists)CHA 36 – 39 IND · IND 68% → 74% +6IND 68% → 74%+6 pts
- Q27:36P.J. Washington makes 25-foot three point jumper (Brandon Miller assists)CHA 43 – 43 IND · CHA 26% → 33% +7CHA 26% → 33%+7 pts
- Q27:17Tyrese Haliburton makes 24-foot step back jumpshot (Bruce Brown assists)CHA 43 – 46 IND · IND 67% → 74% +7IND 67% → 74%+7 pts
- Q26:18P.J. Washington makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ish Smith assists)CHA 48 – 51 IND · CHA 20% → 26% +6CHA 20% → 26%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pacers 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -7
- IND 76%
- Fair odds
- IND -246
- CHA +246 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 120.2 – 127.0 IND
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1385 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −35 | +52 | CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups · IND: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +201 Elo | IND 76.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 70.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 71.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30111.0 | Points scored | 126.71st of 30 |
| 25th of 30120.7 | Points allowed | 126.930th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−9.8 | Margin | −0.221st of 30 |
| 26th of 30109.6 | Offense rating | 118.73rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30119.2 | Defense rating | 118.928th of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.8 | Pace | 106.81st of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–8 | Road vs home | 7–618th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
+52 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHA 1–0 IND in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.