Indiana Pacers at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Isaiah JacksonPoints20
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists11
- Isaiah JacksonRebounds13
Wizards- Kyle KuzmaPoints31
- Tyus JonesAssists11
- Tyus JonesRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–137
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–137
- Q421.1Patrick Baldwin Jr. defensive rebound123–137
- Q424.0Jordan Nwora misses 13-foot two point shot123–137
- Q435.0Isaiah Jackson defensive rebound123–137
- Q439.0Mike Muscala misses 26-foot three point jumper123–137
- Q451.1Isaiah Jackson makes 18-foot jumper (Ben Sheppard assists)123–137
- Q458.1Patrick Baldwin Jr. out of bounds lost ball turnover121–137
- Q41:07Isaiah Jackson makes 5-foot two point shot (Ben Sheppard assists)121–137
- Q41:22Jordan Nwora defensive rebound119–137
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:04Corey Kispert makes 28-foot three pointer (Jordan Poole assists)IND 40 – 43 WSH · WSH 34% → 41% +7WSH 34% → 41%+7 pts
- Q25:46Jordan Poole makes 30-foot three pointerIND 42 – 52 WSH · WSH 52% → 60% +8WSH 52% → 60%+8 pts
- Q24:16Kyle Kuzma makes 22-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)IND 44 – 57 WSH · WSH 61% → 69% +8WSH 61% → 69%+8 pts
- Q22:40Bilal Coulibaly makes 22-foot three point shot (Tyus Jones assists)IND 48 – 62 WSH · WSH 65% → 72% +7WSH 65% → 72%+7 pts
- Q21:53Tyrese Haliburton makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bennedict Mathurin assists)IND 53 – 62 WSH · IND 32% → 40% +8IND 32% → 40%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pacers 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -6.5
- IND 74%
- Fair odds
- IND -228
- WSH +228 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 129.4 – 123.1 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1408 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +75 | −61 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · WSH: Missing Landry Shamet −2 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | IND crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | IND +185 Elo | IND 74.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 68.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 69.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30127.6 | Points scored | 115.910th of 30 |
| 29th of 30125.4 | Points allowed | 127.030th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.2 | Margin | −11.129th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30119.4 | Offense rating | 109.925th of 30 |
| 27th of 30117.3 | Defense rating | 120.430th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.9 | Pace | 105.42nd of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Road vs home | 1–827th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+75 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−61 Elo- Landry Shamet rib injury−2 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
IND 1–0 WSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.