Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Myles TurnerPoints22
- Bruce BrownAssists9
- Myles TurnerRebounds9
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints64
- Khris MiddletonAssists7
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–140
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–140
- Q415.0Bruce Brown makes two point shot126–140
- Q418.2Bruce Brown offensive rebound124–140
- Q418.2Jarace Walker misses 23-foot three point jumper124–140
- Q426.0Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 1-foot dunk (Malik Beasley assists)124–140
- Q428.1Jordan Nwora bad pass (Malik Beasley steals)124–138
- Q433.1Bruce Brown defensive rebound124–138
- Q436.1Giannis Antetokounmpo misses free throw 2 of 2124–138
- Q436.1Giannis Antetokounmpo makes free throw 1 of 2124–138
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:15Bobby Portis makes 23-foot step back jumpshot (Damian Lillard assists)IND 31 – 32 MIL · MIL 55% → 62% +7MIL 55% → 62%+7 pts
- Q311:26Myles Turner makes 22-foot three point jumper (Bruce Brown assists)IND 66 – 70 MIL · IND 23% → 31% +7IND 23% → 31%+7 pts
- Q310:43Obi Toppin makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bruce Brown assists)IND 71 – 72 MIL · IND 31% → 39% +8IND 31% → 39%+8 pts
- Q38:06Damian Lillard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Brook Lopez assists)IND 75 – 79 MIL · MIL 61% → 69% +9MIL 61% → 69%+9 pts
- Q410:28Bobby Portis makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cameron Payne assists)IND 96 – 104 MIL · MIL 76% → 85% +9MIL 76% → 85%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bucks 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -3
- MIL 62%
- Fair odds
- MIL -159
- IND +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 124.5 – 128.0 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +91 | +111 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +85 Elo | MIL 62.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 61.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 61.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30127.6 | Points scored | 122.62nd of 30 |
| 29th of 30124.7 | Points allowed | 119.223rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30+2.9 | Margin | +3.48th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30119.8 | Offense rating | 117.73rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30117.1 | Defense rating | 114.422nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.6 | Pace | 103.05th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 306–3 | Road vs home | 11–26th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+91 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+111 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
IND 2–0 MIL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.