Indiana Pacers at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Bennedict MathurinPoints30
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists16
- Bruce BrownRebounds9
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints23
- Cade CunninghamAssists7
- Isaiah StewartRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game131–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter131–123
- Q44.0Bojan Bogdanovic makes driving layup (Cade Cunningham assists)131–123
- Q412.2Isaiah Stewart defensive rebound131–121
- Q416.2Myles Turner misses free throw 2 of 2131–121
- Q416.2Pacers offensive team rebound131–121
- Q416.2Myles Turner misses free throw 1 of 2131–121
- Q416.2Cade Cunningham personal foul131–121
- Q422.0Pacers Full timeout131–121
- Q426.1Ausar Thompson makes 3-foot driving dunk131–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q23:11Bojan Bogdanovic makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)IND 57 – 59 DET · DET 28% → 35% +7DET 28% → 35%+7 pts
- Q36:17Bennedict Mathurin makes 24-foot three pointer (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 82 – 77 DET · IND 72% → 80% +8IND 72% → 80%+8 pts
- Q31:56Aaron Nesmith makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bennedict Mathurin assists)IND 93 – 86 DET · IND 78% → 85% +8IND 78% → 85%+8 pts
- Q312.1Alec Burks makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (Killian Hayes assists)IND 97 – 93 DET · DET 14% → 22% +8DET 14% → 22%+8 pts
- Q411:48Aaron Nesmith makes 22-foot three point jumper (Bennedict Mathurin assists)IND 101 – 93 DET · IND 81% → 88% +7IND 81% → 88%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pacers 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -9.5
- IND 83%
- Fair odds
- IND -310
- DET +310 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 125.3 – 116.7 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1360 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +85 | −68 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · DET: Missing Marvin Bagley III −6 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +269 Elo | IND 82.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 74.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 75.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30127.5 | Points scored | 108.028th of 30 |
| 29th of 30124.8 | Points allowed | 118.223rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30+2.7 | Margin | −10.229th of 30 |
| 1st of 30119.6 | Offense rating | 105.628th of 30 |
| 27th of 30117.1 | Defense rating | 115.624th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.7 | Pace | 102.28th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 0–1029th of 30 |
| 6th of 305–3 | Road vs home | 1–1029th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+85 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
−68 Elo- Marvin Bagley III back spasms−6 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
IND 1–0 DET in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.