Detroit Pistons at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints21
- Cade CunninghamAssists6
- Killian HayesRebounds7
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints27
- Cole AnthonyAssists6
- Goga BitadzeRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game91–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter91–123
- Q42.1Ausar Thompson makes driving layup (Isaiah Livers assists)91–123
- Q412.0shot clock turnover89–123
- Q434.1Chuma Okeke defensive rebound89–123
- Q437.1Isaiah Livers misses 17-foot pullup jump shot89–123
- Q448.1Jett Howard makes free throw 2 of 289–123
- Q448.1Magic offensive team rebound89–122
- Q448.1Jett Howard misses free throw 1 of 289–122
- Q448.1Isaiah Livers shooting foul89–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:52Cade Cunningham makes 26-foot three point jumper (Killian Hayes assists)DET 9 – 8 ORL · DET 18% → 23% +5DET 18% → 23%+5 pts
- Q15:38Isaiah Stewart makes 25-foot three point jumper (Killian Hayes assists)DET 18 – 12 ORL · DET 28% → 33% +6DET 28% → 33%+6 pts
- Q14:27Gary Harris makes two point shotDET 18 – 14 ORL · ORL 66% → 70% +4ORL 66% → 70%+4 pts
- Q13:59Paolo Banchero makes two point shotDET 18 – 16 ORL · ORL 70% → 74% +4ORL 70% → 74%+4 pts
- Q28:58Alec Burks makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ausar Thompson assists)DET 28 – 33 ORL · DET 12% → 16% +4DET 12% → 16%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Magic 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -11
- ORL 86%
- Fair odds
- ORL -384
- DET +384 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 108.4 – 118.7 ORL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1365 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −49 | +40 | DET: Weaker than its recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +312 Elo | ORL 85.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 78.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 79.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30108.8 | Points scored | 114.113th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30118.0 | Points allowed | 110.57th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−9.2 | Margin | +3.66th of 30 |
| 27th of 30106.3 | Offense rating | 111.417th of 30 |
| 24th of 30115.3 | Defense rating | 107.84th of 30 |
| 7th of 30102.3 | Pace | 102.46th of 30 |
| 29th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Road vs home | 9–14th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
−49 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.