Indiana Pacers at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Bruce BrownPoints17
- T.J. McConnellAssists6
- Bruce BrownRebounds5
Timberwolves- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints40
- Kyle AndersonAssists10
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–127
- Q43.1Oscar Tshiebwe makes two point shot109–127
- Q43.1Oscar Tshiebwe offensive rebound107–127
- Q45.0Oscar Tshiebwe misses two point shot107–127
- Q45.1Oscar Tshiebwe offensive rebound107–127
- Q47.1Oscar Tshiebwe misses 4-foot hook shot107–127
- Q415.0James Johnson defensive rebound107–127
- Q417.1Shake Milton misses 7-foot two point shot107–127
- Q429.1Timberwolves offensive team rebound107–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q23:44Anthony Edwards makes 25-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)IND 47 – 44 MIN · MIN 55% → 63% +8MIN 55% → 63%+8 pts
- Q23:05Anthony Edwards makes 25-foot three pointerIND 49 – 47 MIN · MIN 57% → 65% +8MIN 57% → 65%+8 pts
- Q22:39Anthony Edwards makes 24-foot three point jumper (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)IND 51 – 50 MIN · MIN 60% → 68% +8MIN 60% → 68%+8 pts
- Q21:58Aaron Nesmith makes 24-foot three point jumper (Bruce Brown assists)IND 54 – 50 MIN · IND 33% → 41% +8IND 33% → 41%+8 pts
- Q21:02Anthony Edwards makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotIND 54 – 55 MIN · MIN 64% → 72% +8MIN 64% → 72%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -8.5
- MIN 80%
- Fair odds
- MIN -315
- IND +315 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 114.8 – 123.6 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1582 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | IND on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +13 | +78 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +240 Elo | MIN 79.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 75.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 75.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30127.4 | Points scored | 113.019th of 30 |
| 29th of 30125.9 | Points allowed | 105.72nd of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.5 | Margin | +7.33rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.9 | Offense rating | 112.017th of 30 |
| 27th of 30117.5 | Defense rating | 104.71st of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.2 | Pace | 100.418th of 30 |
| 17th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 7th of 306–5 | Road vs home | 10–14th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+78 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.