Minnesota Timberwolves at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Naz ReidPoints27
- Anthony EdwardsAssists11
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds17
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints39
- Luka DoncicAssists13
- Luka DoncicRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–101
- Q411.0A.J. Lawson makes driving layup (Greg Brown III assists)119–101
- Q420.0Dwight Powell defensive rebound119–99
- Q422.1Troy Brown Jr. misses 26-foot three point jumper119–99
- Q440.0Olivier-Maxence Prosper makes driving layup (Jaden Hardy assists)119–99
- Q450.0Josh Minott makes free throw 1 of 1119–97
- Q450.0Dwight Powell shooting foul118–97
- Q450.0Josh Minott makes 5-foot driving floating jump shot (Jordan McLaughlin assists)118–97
- Q41:02Timberwolves defensive team rebound116–97
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:34Naz Reid makes 25-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 57 – 54 DAL · MIN 48% → 57% +9MIN 48% → 57%+9 pts
- Q310:40Dante Exum makes 23-foot three point shot (Luka Doncic assists)MIN 59 – 64 DAL · DAL 58% → 66% +9DAL 58% → 66%+9 pts
- Q35:47Mike Conley makes 25-foot three point jumper (Rudy Gobert assists)MIN 77 – 74 DAL · MIN 48% → 59% +10MIN 48% → 59%+10 pts
- Q32:43Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kyle Anderson assists)MIN 85 – 79 DAL · MIN 60% → 70% +10MIN 60% → 70%+10 pts
- Q410:02Troy Brown Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)MIN 92 – 84 DAL · MIN 70% → 81% +11MIN 70% → 81%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mavericks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -0.5
- DAL 48%
- Fair odds
- DAL -111
- MIN +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 114.2 – 115.1 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1568 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +68 | +74 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +13 Elo | MIN 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 52.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30112.7 | Points scored | 120.26th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.9 | Points allowed | 116.922nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+6.8 | Margin | +3.310th of 30 |
| 18th of 30111.8 | Offense rating | 117.44th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.0 | Defense rating | 114.221st of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.4 | Pace | 102.56th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–4 | Road vs home | 7–414th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+68 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
+74 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.