Charlotte Hornets at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Terry RozierPoints22
- Terry RozierAssists7
- Nick RichardsRebounds10
Raptors- Pascal SiakamPoints27
- Pascal SiakamAssists8
- Scottie BarnesRebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–114
- Q46.1shot clock turnover99–114
- Q429.1Pascal Siakam defensive rebound99–114
- Q432.1Brandon Miller misses driving floating jump shot99–114
- Q448.1Scottie Barnes makes tip shot99–114
- Q448.1Scottie Barnes offensive rebound99–112
- Q450.1Gary Trent Jr. misses 23-foot three point jumper99–112
- Q41:05Pascal Siakam defensive rebound99–112
- Q41:08Terry Rozier misses 25-foot step back jumpshot99–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:58Terry Rozier makes 24-foot step back jumpshotCHA 61 – 55 TOR · CHA 49% → 58% +10CHA 49% → 58%+10 pts
- Q34:42Gary Trent Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)CHA 68 – 66 TOR · TOR 43% → 53% +11TOR 43% → 53%+11 pts
- Q34:08Dennis Schroder makes 25-foot three pointerCHA 70 – 69 TOR · TOR 46% → 56% +11TOR 46% → 56%+11 pts
- Q32:10Nick Smith Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ish Smith assists)CHA 77 – 75 TOR · CHA 37% → 48% +11CHA 37% → 48%+11 pts
- Q47:29Gary Trent Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)CHA 87 – 93 TOR · TOR 71% → 83% +12TOR 71% → 83%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Raptors 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -5.5
- TOR 71%
- Fair odds
- TOR -199
- CHA +199 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 113.0 – 118.2 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1392 | 1447 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −33 | +32 | CHA: Missing Cody Martin −5, Frank Ntilikina −5 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +155 Elo | TOR 70.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 66.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 66.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30111.5 | Points scored | 112.521st of 30 |
| 26th of 30121.0 | Points allowed | 114.819th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−9.5 | Margin | −2.322nd of 30 |
| 25th of 30109.9 | Offense rating | 111.119th of 30 |
| 29th of 30119.3 | Defense rating | 113.418th of 30 |
| 17th of 30101.0 | Pace | 100.320th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Road vs home | 7–720th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−33 Elo- Cody Martin left knee rehab−5 Elo
- Frank Ntilikina left tibia−5 Elo
Raptors
+32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHA 1–0 TOR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.