Philadelphia 76ers at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints42
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists7
- Joel EmbiidRebounds15
Hornets- Brandon MillerPoints14
- Brandon MillerAssists4
- Miles BridgesRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game135–82
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter135–82
- Q40.0Hornets offensive team rebound135–82
- Q40.0Amari Bailey misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot135–82
- Q416.0Jaden Springer makes 12-foot step back jumpshot135–82
- Q440.1Amari Bailey makes free throw 2 of 2133–82
- Q440.1Hornets offensive team rebound133–81
- Q440.1Amari Bailey misses free throw 1 of 2133–81
- Q440.1KJ Martin personal foul133–81
- Q452.1Danuel House Jr. makes 25-foot step back jumpshot (KJ Martin assists)133–81
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:33Joel Embiid makes 13-foot pullup jump shotPHI 2 – 0 CHA · PHI 71% → 74% +3PHI 71% → 74%+3 pts
- Q111:01Joel Embiid makes 13-foot pullup jump shotPHI 4 – 0 CHA · PHI 74% → 78% +3PHI 74% → 78%+3 pts
- Q110:27Bryce McGowens makes layupPHI 4 – 2 CHA · CHA 22% → 26% +3CHA 22% → 26%+3 pts
- Q110:15Joel Embiid makes layup (Nicolas Batum assists)PHI 6 – 3 CHA · PHI 72% → 76% +3PHI 72% → 76%+3 pts
- Q17:12Tobias Harris makes 24-foot running pullup jump shot (Tyrese Maxey assists)PHI 13 – 3 CHA · PHI 82% → 86% +4PHI 82% → 86%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
76ers 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -9
- PHI 81%
- Fair odds
- PHI -245
- CHA +245 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 121.0 – 114.2 CHA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1574 | 1403 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | CHA and PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +127 | +9 | PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +253 Elo | PHI 81.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 69.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 71.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30122.4 | Points scored | 112.721st of 30 |
| 10th of 30112.2 | Points allowed | 120.425th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+10.2 | Margin | −7.726th of 30 |
| 1st of 30119.8 | Offense rating | 111.020th of 30 |
| 7th of 30109.8 | Defense rating | 118.629th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.7 | Pace | 101.017th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–4 | Road vs home | 4–924th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+127 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.