Detroit Pistons at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- James WisemanPoints20
- Jaden IveyAssists4
- James WisemanRebounds13
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints35
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists4
- Joel EmbiidRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game92–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter92–124
- Q44.1shot clock turnover92–124
- Q428.1Marcus Sasser makes free throw 2 of 292–124
- Q428.1Marcus Sasser makes free throw 1 of 291–124
- Q428.1Jaden Springer personal foul90–124
- Q441.1Jaden Springer makes 25-foot three point jumper90–124
- Q459.1James Wiseman makes 6-foot two point shot (Jaden Ivey assists)90–121
- Q41:08Ausar Thompson defensive rebound88–121
- Q41:11Danuel House Jr. misses 24-foot three point jumper88–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:53Tyrese Maxey makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (Joel Embiid assists)DET 0 – 5 PHI · PHI 89% → 92% +3PHI 89% → 92%+3 pts
- Q210:41Marcus Morris Sr. makes 26-foot three point shot (Tyrese Maxey assists)DET 22 – 31 PHI · PHI 91% → 93% +3PHI 91% → 93%+3 pts
- Q27:57Marcus Morris Sr. makes 24-foot step back jumpshot (Kelly Oubre Jr. assists)DET 30 – 38 PHI · PHI 89% → 92% +3PHI 89% → 92%+3 pts
- Q26:02Ausar Thompson makes driving layup (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 34 – 42 PHI · DET 5% → 8% +3DET 5% → 8%+3 pts
- Q25:11Marcus Morris Sr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)DET 34 – 45 PHI · PHI 92% → 95% +3PHI 92% → 95%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
76ers 87%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 87%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -15.5
- PHI 92%
- Fair odds
- PHI -667
- DET +667 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 109.3 – 123.8 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1354 | 1572 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −63 | +120 | DET: Missing Marvin Bagley III −6 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +435 Elo | PHI 92.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 86.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 87.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30108.8 | Points scored | 122.34th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30119.2 | Points allowed | 113.112th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−10.5 | Margin | +9.21st of 30 |
| 27th of 30106.2 | Offense rating | 119.91st of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.4 | Defense rating | 110.910th of 30 |
| 9th of 30102.4 | Pace | 101.514th of 30 |
| 29th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–10 | Road vs home | 9–39th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
−63 Elo- Marvin Bagley III lower back sprain−6 Elo
76ers
+120 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 0–2 PHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.