Philadelphia 76ers at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints41
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists9
- Joel EmbiidRebounds11
Pistons- Bojan BogdanovicPoints33
- Cade CunninghamAssists7
- Ausar ThompsonRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game129–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter129–111
- Q416.1KJ Martin defensive rebound129–111
- Q419.1Kevin Knox II misses 26-foot three point jumper129–111
- Q429.1Pistons defensive team rebound129–111
- Q430.1Danuel House Jr. misses 30-foot step back jumpshot129–111
- Q451.0Kevin Knox II makes 27-foot three point jumper (Marcus Sasser assists)129–111
- Q457.2Ausar Thompson defensive rebound129–108
- Q459.2Jaden Springer misses 8-foot two point shot129–108
- Q41:14Marcus Sasser makes 22-foot step back jumpshot129–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:55Killian Hayes makes 9-foot two point shotPHI 2 – 4 DET · DET 20% → 23% +3DET 20% → 23%+3 pts
- Q110:21De'Anthony Melton makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)PHI 5 – 4 DET · PHI 77% → 81% +5PHI 77% → 81%+5 pts
- Q19:21Tobias Harris makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)PHI 10 – 6 DET · PHI 81% → 85% +4PHI 81% → 85%+4 pts
- Q15:57Patrick Beverley makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tobias Harris assists)PHI 22 – 17 DET · PHI 82% → 86% +4PHI 82% → 86%+4 pts
- Q14:53Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Joel Embiid assists)PHI 25 – 19 DET · PHI 83% → 87% +4PHI 83% → 87%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
76ers 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -12.5
- PHI 88%
- Fair odds
- PHI -402
- DET +402 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 121.5 – 110.9 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1569 | 1357 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +109 | −62 | PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · DET: Missing Marvin Bagley III −6 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +346 Elo | PHI 88.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 79.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 80.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30122.0 | Points scored | 108.728th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.2 | Points allowed | 118.823rd of 30 |
| 1st of 30+8.8 | Margin | −10.128th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30119.7 | Offense rating | 106.227th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.0 | Defense rating | 116.125th of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.4 | Pace | 102.37th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 0–1029th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Road vs home | 1–1130th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+109 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
−62 Elo- Marvin Bagley III lower back sprain−6 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 1–0 DET in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.