Atlanta Hawks at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints38
- Trae YoungAssists11
- Clint CapelaRebounds15
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints23
- Scottie BarnesAssists8
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–104
- Q41.1Gradey Dick makes 33-foot three pointer (Garrett Temple assists)125–104
- Q48.2shot clock turnover125–101
- Q432.2Hawks defensive team rebound125–101
- Q435.1Gradey Dick misses 25-foot three point jumper125–101
- Q448.1Seth Lundy makes 18-foot pullup jump shot (Trent Forrest assists)125–101
- Q459.0Malachi Flynn makes free throw 2 of 2123–101
- Q459.0Malachi Flynn makes free throw 1 of 2123–100
- Q459.0Seth Lundy shooting foul123–99
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:11Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 25-foot three pointer (Trent Forrest assists)ATL 48 – 42 TOR · ATL 55% → 62% +8ATL 55% → 62%+8 pts
- Q23:35Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 24-foot three point shot (Trae Young assists)ATL 51 – 44 TOR · ATL 58% → 65% +8ATL 58% → 65%+8 pts
- Q22:05Trae Young makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dejounte Murray assists)ATL 54 – 47 TOR · ATL 58% → 66% +8ATL 58% → 66%+8 pts
- Q410:18Trae Young makes 27-foot three pointerATL 92 – 83 TOR · ATL 73% → 83% +10ATL 73% → 83%+10 pts
- Q49:49Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)ATL 95 – 86 TOR · ATL 74% → 84% +10ATL 74% → 84%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Raptors 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -1
- TOR 55%
- Fair odds
- TOR -119
- ATL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 119.4 – 120.8 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1448 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +58 | +39 | ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +34 Elo | TOR 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30122.5 | Points scored | 112.820th of 30 |
| 28th of 30123.3 | Points allowed | 114.419th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.8 | Margin | −1.522nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.2 | Offense rating | 111.419th of 30 |
| 28th of 30118.0 | Defense rating | 112.918th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.1 | Pace | 100.319th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 17th of 305–7 | Road vs home | 7–619th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+58 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
+39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 0–1 TOR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.