Atlanta Hawks at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints35
- Trae YoungAssists17
- Clint CapelaRebounds10
Raptors- Pascal SiakamPoints33
- Malachi FlynnAssists8
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–135
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–135
- Q413.0Trae Young makes driving layup128–135
- Q419.1Jakob Poeltl makes free throw 2 of 2126–135
- Q419.1Jakob Poeltl makes free throw 1 of 2126–134
- Q419.1Dejounte Murray personal foul126–133
- Q419.1Jakob Poeltl defensive rebound126–133
- Q423.1Bogdan Bogdanovic misses 30-foot three point jumper126–133
- Q425.0Hawks Full timeout126–133
- Q425.0Dennis Schroder makes free throw 2 of 2126–133
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34:37Onyeka Okongwu makes 23-foot three point jumper (Bogdan Bogdanovic assists)ATL 86 – 88 TOR · ATL 32% → 42% +10ATL 32% → 42%+10 pts
- Q34:16Gary Trent Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Malachi Flynn assists)ATL 86 – 91 TOR · TOR 58% → 68% +10TOR 58% → 68%+10 pts
- Q46:41Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 27-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)ATL 104 – 109 TOR · ATL 13% → 24% +11ATL 13% → 24%+11 pts
- Q46:26Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 29-foot three point shot (Trae Young assists)ATL 107 – 109 TOR · ATL 24% → 38% +15ATL 24% → 38%+15 pts
- Q45:57Pascal Siakam makes 2-foot two point shotATL 107 – 111 TOR · TOR 62% → 73% +11TOR 62% → 73%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Raptors 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- TOR 51%
- Fair odds
- TOR -104
- ATL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 118.9 – 119.2 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1457 | 1457 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +58 | +24 | ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +4 Elo | TOR 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 50.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30122.2 | Points scored | 111.922nd of 30 |
| 28th of 30122.8 | Points allowed | 113.817th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −1.922nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30116.9 | Offense rating | 110.521st of 30 |
| 28th of 30117.4 | Defense rating | 112.417th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.2 | Pace | 100.220th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 15th of 305–6 | Road vs home | 6–619th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+58 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.