Toronto Raptors at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- OG AnunobyPoints29
- Dennis SchroderAssists10
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds8
Knicks- Julius RandlePoints34
- Jalen BrunsonAssists9
- Julius RandleRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game130–136
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter130–136
- Q41.0Josh Hart defensive rebound130–136
- Q42.0Precious Achiuwa misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot130–136
- Q411.0Precious Achiuwa defensive rebound130–136
- Q413.1Julius Randle misses free throw 2 of 2130–136
- Q413.1Julius Randle makes free throw 1 of 2130–136
- Q413.1Pascal Siakam personal foul130–135
- Q415.1Donte DiVincenzo enters the game for Isaiah Hartenstein130–135
- Q415.1Knicks Full timeout130–135
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:27RJ Barrett makes 23-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)TOR 99 – 103 NY · NY 60% → 72% +12NY 60% → 72%+12 pts
- Q49:48Malachi Flynn makes 26-foot three point jumper (Precious Achiuwa assists)TOR 102 – 104 NY · TOR 24% → 36% +12TOR 24% → 36%+12 pts
- Q47:17Quentin Grimes makes 25-foot three pointer (Josh Hart assists)TOR 108 – 113 NY · NY 65% → 78% +13NY 65% → 78%+13 pts
- Q46:14Dennis Schroder makes 23-foot three point shot (Pascal Siakam assists)TOR 111 – 115 NY · TOR 13% → 25% +11TOR 13% → 25%+11 pts
- Q43:37Quentin Grimes makes 25-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)TOR 117 – 124 NY · NY 80% → 92% +12NY 80% → 92%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Knicks 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -4.5
- NY 67%
- Fair odds
- NY -161
- TOR +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 109.7 – 113.3 NY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1462 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +18 | +19 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Missing Immanuel Quickley −10 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +125 Elo | NY 67.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 61.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 61.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30111.0 | Points scored | 112.021st of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.8 | Points allowed | 108.73rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−1.7 | Margin | +3.310th of 30 |
| 25th of 30109.6 | Offense rating | 113.911th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.3 | Defense rating | 110.610th of 30 |
| 20th of 30100.3 | Pace | 98.229th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Road vs home | 6–310th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+19 Elo- Immanuel Quickley right knee inflammation−10 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 0–1 NY in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.