New York Knicks at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- RJ BarrettPoints23
- Josh HartAssists7
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds16
Celtics- Derrick WhitePoints30
- Jayson TatumAssists5
- Al HorfordRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–133
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–133
- Q417.1Julius Randle makes driving layup (Donte DiVincenzo assists)123–133
- Q421.1Immanuel Quickley enters the game for Jalen Brunson121–133
- Q421.1Dalano Banton enters the game for Derrick White121–133
- Q421.1Knicks Full timeout121–133
- Q421.1Derrick White makes free throw 2 of 2121–133
- Q421.1Oshae Brissett enters the game for Jayson Tatum121–132
- Q421.1Derrick White makes free throw 1 of 2121–132
- Q421.1Julius Randle personal take foul121–131
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:52Jayson Tatum makes 25-foot three point jumper (Sam Hauser assists)NY 44 – 47 BOS · BOS 60% → 67% +7BOS 60% → 67%+7 pts
- Q25:40Derrick White makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)NY 51 – 50 BOS · BOS 49% → 57% +8BOS 49% → 57%+8 pts
- Q24:46Kristaps Porzingis makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)NY 54 – 55 BOS · BOS 54% → 62% +8BOS 54% → 62%+8 pts
- Q23:44Jayson Tatum makes 25-foot three pointerNY 55 – 60 BOS · BOS 65% → 72% +7BOS 65% → 72%+7 pts
- Q23:29Julius Randle makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 58 – 60 BOS · NY 28% → 35% +7NY 28% → 35%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -3.5
- BOS 64%
- Fair odds
- BOS -165
- NY +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 108.5 – 112.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1585 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +32 | +56 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | NY crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +99 Elo | BOS 63.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 62.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 62.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30111.5 | Points scored | 116.510th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30107.5 | Points allowed | 108.14th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+4.0 | Margin | +8.41st of 30 |
| 12th of 30113.4 | Offense rating | 115.58th of 30 |
| 8th of 30109.4 | Defense rating | 107.23rd of 30 |
| 29th of 3098.1 | Pace | 99.823rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 8th of 306–5 | Road vs home | 9–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+56 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NY 0–2 BOS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.