LA Clippers at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- James HardenPoints35
- James HardenAssists9
- Ivica ZubacRebounds16
Pacers- Bennedict MathurinPoints34
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists11
- Bennedict MathurinRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game151–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter151–127
- Q414.1Buddy Hield makes two point shot (Bennedict Mathurin assists)151–127
- Q418.1Bennedict Mathurin defensive rebound151–125
- Q421.1Brandon Boston Jr. misses 16-foot two point shot151–125
- Q439.1Bennedict Mathurin makes free throw 2 of 2151–125
- Q439.1Bennedict Mathurin makes free throw 1 of 2151–124
- Q439.1Kobe Brown shooting foul151–123
- Q443.1Bennedict Mathurin defensive rebound151–123
- Q446.1Terance Mann misses 26-foot three point jumper151–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11.2Buddy Hield makes 25-foot three point shot (Aaron Nesmith assists)LAC 37 – 38 IND · IND 42% → 49% +7IND 42% → 49%+7 pts
- Q211:45Obi Toppin makes 25-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)LAC 37 – 41 IND · IND 49% → 57% +7IND 49% → 57%+7 pts
- Q210:27James Harden makes 25-foot three pointer (Terance Mann assists)LAC 40 – 43 IND · LAC 38% → 46% +7LAC 38% → 46%+7 pts
- Q24:47James Harden makes 27-foot step back jumpshotLAC 60 – 57 IND · LAC 53% → 61% +8LAC 53% → 61%+8 pts
- Q22:36Paul George makes 27-foot three pointer (James Harden assists)LAC 70 – 60 IND · LAC 71% → 78% +7LAC 71% → 78%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Clippers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -2.5
- LAC 61%
- Fair odds
- LAC -115
- IND +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 122.1 – 121.0 IND
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1560 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +102 | +49 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Missing Myles Turner −10 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −36 | −12 | LAC crossed 3 time zones and IND crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | LAC +75 Elo | LAC 60.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 53.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30115.6 | Points scored | 126.61st of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.0 | Points allowed | 125.929th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+5.6 | Margin | +0.717th of 30 |
| 11th of 30115.0 | Offense rating | 118.63rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.4 | Defense rating | 117.928th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30100.1 | Pace | 106.91st of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–7 | Road vs home | 7–515th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+102 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
+49 Elo- Myles Turner hamstring−10 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.