New York Knicks at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints22
- Jalen BrunsonAssists6
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds10
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints36
- James HardenAssists12
- Ivica ZubacRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–144
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–144
- Q419.1Xavier Moon defensive rebound122–144
- Q423.1Ryan Arcidiacono misses 27-foot three point shot122–144
- Q428.0Joshua Primo bad pass (Taj Gibson steals)122–144
- Q434.1Taj Gibson makes tip shot122–144
- Q434.1Taj Gibson offensive rebound120–144
- Q436.1Jericho Sims misses 8-foot two point shot120–144
- Q440.1Knicks offensive team rebound120–144
- Q442.1Taj Gibson misses 23-foot three point jumper120–144
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:05Daniel Theis makes free throw 2 of 2NY 41 – 50 LAC · LAC 72% → 80% +8LAC 72% → 80%+8 pts
- Q23:37Jalen Brunson makes 27-foot three pointerNY 61 – 57 LAC · NY 43% → 51% +8NY 43% → 51%+8 pts
- Q22:39James Harden makes 24-foot three point shot (Terance Mann assists)NY 61 – 64 LAC · LAC 60% → 68% +8LAC 60% → 68%+8 pts
- Q22:23Terance Mann makes 24-foot running pullup jump shot (Kawhi Leonard assists)NY 61 – 67 LAC · LAC 68% → 75% +7LAC 68% → 75%+7 pts
- Q21:41Terance Mann makes 23-foot three point shot (James Harden assists)NY 61 – 70 LAC · LAC 75% → 81% +6LAC 75% → 81%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Clippers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -3
- LAC 63%
- Fair odds
- LAC -169
- NY +169 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 110.8 – 114.9 LAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1562 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | NY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +56 | +84 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +91 Elo | LAC 62.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 62.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 62.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30114.2 | Points scored | 114.415th of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.5 | Points allowed | 109.54th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+3.7 | Margin | +4.96th of 30 |
| 8th of 30115.7 | Offense rating | 113.914th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.0 | Defense rating | 109.06th of 30 |
| 29th of 3098.6 | Pace | 100.022nd of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 9th of 307–7 | Road vs home | 10–38th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+56 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
+84 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NY 1–0 LAC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.