New York Knicks at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Julius RandlePoints32
- Jalen BrunsonAssists8
- Julius RandleRebounds12
Jazz- Collin SextonPoints26
- Kelly OlynykAssists8
- Kelly OlynykRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–117
- Q41.1Kelly Olynyk defensive rebound113–117
- Q46.0Jalen Brunson misses running pullup jump shot113–117
- Q48.1Julius Randle defensive rebound113–117
- Q410.1Lauri Markkanen misses free throw 2 of 2113–117
- Q410.1Jazz offensive team rebound113–117
- Q410.1Lauri Markkanen misses free throw 1 of 2113–117
- Q410.1Josh Hart personal take foul113–117
- Q411.1Lauri Markkanen defensive rebound113–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34:48Simone Fontecchio makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kelly Olynyk assists)NY 69 – 74 UTAH · UTAH 51% → 61% +10UTAH 51% → 61%+10 pts
- Q32:12Julius Randle makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 76 – 80 UTAH · NY 30% → 41% +11NY 30% → 41%+11 pts
- Q31:25Julius Randle makes 26-foot step back jumpshotNY 79 – 81 UTAH · NY 36% → 48% +12NY 36% → 48%+12 pts
- Q336.1Immanuel Quickley makes 31-foot three pointerNY 84 – 83 UTAH · NY 47% → 60% +12NY 47% → 60%+12 pts
- Q328.1Kris Dunn makes 25-foot three point jumper (Talen Horton-Tucker assists)NY 84 – 86 UTAH · UTAH 40% → 53% +12UTAH 40% → 53%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Knicks 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -5.5
- NY 71%
- Fair odds
- NY -155
- UTAH +155 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 116.3 – 113.0 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1410 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +41 | −5 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +156 Elo | NY 71.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 60.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30113.1 | Points scored | 111.323rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.7 | Points allowed | 120.325th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+3.4 | Margin | −9.027th of 30 |
| 10th of 30114.9 | Offense rating | 108.626th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 117.427th of 30 |
| 29th of 3098.3 | Pace | 101.116th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–6 | Road vs home | 6–518th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+41 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.