Golden State Warriors at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Klay ThompsonPoints30
- Klay ThompsonAssists5
- Kevon LooneyRebounds7
Clippers- James HardenPoints28
- James HardenAssists15
- Kawhi LeonardRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–121
- Q413.0Norman Powell defensive rebound113–121
- Q416.0Stephen Curry misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot113–121
- Q420.1Norman Powell makes free throw 2 of 2113–121
- Q420.1Norman Powell makes free throw 1 of 2113–120
- Q420.1Chris Paul personal take foul113–119
- Q421.0Norman Powell defensive rebound113–119
- Q423.1Brandin Podziemski misses driving layup113–119
- Q429.1Brandin Podziemski enters the game for Jonathan Kuminga113–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:53Chris Paul makes 12-foot pullup jump shotGS 102 – 103 LAC · GS 31% → 40% +9GS 31% → 40%+9 pts
- Q48:31James Harden makes 26-foot step back jumpshotGS 102 – 106 LAC · LAC 60% → 74% +13LAC 60% → 74%+13 pts
- Q45:44Klay Thompson makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jonathan Kuminga assists)GS 105 – 109 LAC · GS 12% → 24% +12GS 12% → 24%+12 pts
- Q44:38Kevon Looney makes 3-foot layup (Klay Thompson assists)GS 107 – 111 LAC · GS 13% → 22% +9GS 13% → 22%+9 pts
- Q44:14Norman Powell makes driving layup (Ivica Zubac assists)GS 107 – 113 LAC · LAC 79% → 87% +9LAC 79% → 87%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Clippers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -4
- LAC 65%
- Fair odds
- LAC -167
- GS +167 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 112.5 – 116.4 LAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +14 | +54 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +105 Elo | LAC 64.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 62.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 62.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30115.6 | Points scored | 114.116th of 30 |
| 20th of 30115.3 | Points allowed | 109.35th of 30 |
| 18th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +4.86th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.4 | Offense rating | 113.413th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.1 | Defense rating | 108.75th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.8 | Pace | 100.121st of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 16th of 305–7 | Road vs home | 9–38th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
+54 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
GS 1–1 LAC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.