New York Knicks at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints50
- Jalen BrunsonAssists9
- Julius RandleRebounds8
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints29
- Devin BookerAssists9
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game139–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter139–122
- Q46.1Ryan Arcidiacono defensive rebound139–122
- Q410.2Jordan Goodwin misses driving floating jump shot139–122
- Q427.1Suns defensive team rebound139–122
- Q427.2Jericho Sims misses alley oop dunk shot139–122
- Q442.1Drew Eubanks makes free throw 2 of 2139–122
- Q442.1Drew Eubanks makes free throw 1 of 2139–121
- Q442.1Jericho Sims shooting foul139–118
- Q454.1Miles McBride makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ryan Arcidiacono assists)139–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:36Drew Eubanks makes dunk (Devin Booker assists)NY 99 – 101 PHX · PHX 54% → 62% +9PHX 54% → 62%+9 pts
- Q410:17Quentin Grimes makes 26-foot three point jumper (RJ Barrett assists)NY 102 – 101 PHX · NY 38% → 51% +13NY 38% → 51%+13 pts
- Q410:00Drew Eubanks makes dunk (Chimezie Metu assists)NY 102 – 103 PHX · PHX 49% → 58% +9PHX 49% → 58%+9 pts
- Q49:44Immanuel Quickley makes 27-foot three point jumper (Quentin Grimes assists)NY 105 – 103 PHX · NY 42% → 56% +14NY 42% → 56%+14 pts
- Q49:22Quentin Grimes makes 25-foot three point shot (RJ Barrett assists)NY 108 – 103 PHX · NY 56% → 69% +13NY 56% → 69%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Suns 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -1.5
- PHX 55%
- Fair odds
- PHX -137
- NY +137 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 112.5 – 114.9 PHX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +38 | +82 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +35 Elo | PHX 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 57.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30113.1 | Points scored | 115.112th of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.0 | Points allowed | 113.212th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+3.1 | Margin | +1.913th of 30 |
| 10th of 30114.6 | Offense rating | 114.311th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 112.415th of 30 |
| 29th of 3098.6 | Pace | 99.225th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 13th of 306–7 | Road vs home | 6–722nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
+82 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NY 0–1 PHX in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.