Houston Rockets at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Alperen SengunPoints37
- Alperen SengunAssists6
- Alperen SengunRebounds11
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints28
- Brandon IngramAssists5
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–104
- Q41.1CJ McCollum makes tip shot106–104
- Q41.1CJ McCollum offensive rebound106–102
- Q44.1Brandon Ingram misses 26-foot three point jumper106–102
- Q48.1Pelicans Full timeout106–102
- Q48.1Alperen Sengun makes 4-foot dunk (Jabari Smith Jr. assists)106–102
- Q412.1Jeremiah Robinson-Earl makes 3-foot dunk (Brandon Ingram assists)104–102
- Q413.1Pelicans offensive team rebound104–100
- Q418.1Trey Murphy III misses 27-foot three point jumper104–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:19Trey Murphy III makes 27-foot three pointer (CJ McCollum assists)HOU 91 – 91 NO · NO 44% → 59% +15NO 44% → 59%+15 pts
- Q45:36Trey Murphy III makes 25-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)HOU 93 – 96 NO · NO 58% → 74% +17NO 58% → 74%+17 pts
- Q43:29Alperen Sengun makes 3-foot dunk (Dillon Brooks assists)HOU 99 – 100 NO · HOU 23% → 37% +13HOU 23% → 37%+13 pts
- Q42:10Alperen Sengun makes driving layup (Fred VanVleet assists)HOU 101 – 100 NO · HOU 36% → 55% +19HOU 36% → 55%+19 pts
- Q436.2Jabari Smith Jr. makes 6-foot dunk (Dillon Brooks assists)HOU 104 – 100 NO · HOU 81% → 96% +16HOU 81% → 96%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pelicans 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -5.5
- NO 70%
- Fair odds
- NO -245
- HOU +245 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 109.3 – 116.1 NO
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | HOU on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +36 | +112 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +147 Elo | NO 70.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 71.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 71.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30111.8 | Points scored | 116.112th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.9 | Points allowed | 113.514th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+3.9 | Margin | +2.610th of 30 |
| 20th of 30111.2 | Offense rating | 114.414th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.4 | Defense rating | 111.811th of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.6 | Pace | 101.512th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–10 | Road vs home | 9–512th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+112 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 1–0 NO in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.