Atlanta Hawks at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints30
- Trae YoungAssists14
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds11
Rockets- Jabari Smith Jr.Points34
- Fred VanVleetAssists15
- Jabari Smith Jr.Rebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game134–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter134–127
- Q418.1Saddiq Bey defensive rebound134–127
- Q420.0Jabari Smith Jr. misses 26-foot three point jumper134–127
- Q421.2Rockets Full timeout134–127
- Q421.2Trae Young makes 3-foot two point shot134–127
- Q428.1Jalen Green makes 3-foot dunk (Fred VanVleet assists)132–127
- Q435.1Saddiq Bey makes 26-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)132–125
- Q452.1Dillon Brooks makes two point shot (Jalen Green assists)129–125
- Q457.0Trae Young bad pass (Dillon Brooks steals)129–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34:58Jabari Smith Jr. makes 27-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)ATL 88 – 87 HOU · HOU 39% → 49% +10HOU 39% → 49%+10 pts
- Q31:44Aaron Holiday makes 25-foot three point jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)ATL 92 – 97 HOU · HOU 60% → 71% +11HOU 60% → 71%+11 pts
- Q332.1Jabari Smith Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)ATL 98 – 100 HOU · HOU 48% → 61% +12HOU 48% → 61%+12 pts
- Q411:39Garrison Mathews makes 26-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)ATL 101 – 100 HOU · ATL 39% → 52% +13ATL 39% → 52%+13 pts
- Q49:32Dillon Brooks makes 23-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)ATL 107 – 103 HOU · HOU 22% → 34% +12HOU 22% → 34%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -2.5
- HOU 60%
- Fair odds
- HOU -122
- ATL +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 116.5 – 118.0 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +60 | +12 | ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +69 Elo | HOU 59.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 54.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30122.7 | Points scored | 110.726th of 30 |
| 28th of 30122.7 | Points allowed | 107.32nd of 30 |
| 21st of 300.0 | Margin | +3.48th of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.9 | Offense rating | 110.523rd of 30 |
| 27th of 30117.9 | Defense rating | 107.12nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.8 | Pace | 99.326th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 15th of 306–8 | Road vs home | 11–12nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+60 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.