Houston Rockets at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Fred VanVleetPoints22
- Jalen GreenAssists7
- Alperen SengunRebounds8
Bucks- Damian LillardPoints39
- Damian LillardAssists11
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–128
- Q46.1Fred VanVleet makes 27-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)119–128
- Q49.0Alperen Sengun offensive rebound116–128
- Q412.1Tari Eason misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot116–128
- Q417.1shot clock turnover116–128
- Q417.1Thanasis Antetokounmpo enters the game for Giannis Antetokounmpo116–128
- Q417.1Lindell Wigginton enters the game for Pat Connaughton116–128
- Q417.1AJ Green enters the game for Khris Middleton116–128
- Q417.1Marques Bolden enters the game for Brook Lopez116–128
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:56Jabari Smith Jr. makes 13-foot two point shotHOU 106 – 109 MIL · HOU 19% → 29% +9HOU 19% → 29%+9 pts
- Q45:29Khris Middleton makes 25-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)HOU 106 – 112 MIL · MIL 72% → 85% +13MIL 72% → 85%+13 pts
- Q44:53Damian Lillard makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (Khris Middleton assists)HOU 108 – 115 MIL · MIL 78% → 89% +12MIL 78% → 89%+12 pts
- Q44:06Fred VanVleet makes 26-foot three pointerHOU 111 – 115 MIL · HOU 9% → 21% +12HOU 9% → 21%+12 pts
- Q43:44Giannis Antetokounmpo makes finger roll layupHOU 111 – 117 MIL · MIL 80% → 89% +9MIL 80% → 89%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bucks 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -3
- MIL 62%
- Fair odds
- MIL -173
- HOU +173 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 113.4 – 117.6 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MIL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +31 | +119 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +82 Elo | MIL 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 63.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 63.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30109.5 | Points scored | 124.22nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.1 | Points allowed | 119.223rd of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.4 | Margin | +5.06th of 30 |
| 25th of 30109.8 | Offense rating | 118.72nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.4 | Defense rating | 113.921st of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.2 | Pace | 103.75th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Road vs home | 13–25th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+119 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.