Detroit Pistons at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints25
- Cade CunninghamAssists6
- Marvin Bagley IIIRebounds7
Bucks- Damian LillardPoints33
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists6
- Bobby PortisRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–146
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–146
- Q46.1Thanasis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound114–146
- Q49.1Isaiah Livers misses two point shot114–146
- Q411.1Isaiah Livers offensive rebound114–146
- Q414.1Isaiah Livers misses 22-foot three point jumper114–146
- Q431.1Chris Livingston makes 3-foot two point shot114–146
- Q453.0James Wiseman makes 1-foot dunk (Jaden Ivey assists)114–144
- Q453.0Jaden Ivey defensive rebound112–144
- Q456.1Robin Lopez misses 26-foot three point jumper112–144
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:01MarJon Beauchamp makes 22-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)DET 0 – 5 MIL · MIL 89% → 92% +3MIL 89% → 92%+3 pts
- Q19:04Bojan Bogdanovic makes driving layup (Killian Hayes assists)DET 4 – 7 MIL · DET 8% → 10% +2DET 8% → 10%+2 pts
- Q18:30Andre Jackson Jr. makes two point shot (Damian Lillard assists)DET 4 – 9 MIL · MIL 90% → 92% +2MIL 90% → 92%+2 pts
- Q18:01Brook Lopez makes 25-foot three point jumper (MarJon Beauchamp assists)DET 4 – 12 MIL · MIL 92% → 94% +2MIL 92% → 94%+2 pts
- Q17:30Andre Jackson Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (Brook Lopez assists)DET 6 – 15 MIL · MIL 93% → 95% +2MIL 93% → 95%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bucks 88%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 88%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -15.5
- MIL 92%
- Fair odds
- MIL -727
- DET +727 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 111.4 – 126.4 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1352 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −55 | +97 | DET: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +428 Elo | MIL 92.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 87.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 87.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30108.1 | Points scored | 123.32nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30119.4 | Points allowed | 119.524th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−11.3 | Margin | +3.99th of 30 |
| 28th of 30105.4 | Offense rating | 117.93rd of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.5 | Defense rating | 114.221st of 30 |
| 6th of 30102.5 | Pace | 103.55th of 30 |
| 30th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–11 | Road vs home | 12–26th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
−55 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+97 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 0–1 MIL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.