Atlanta Hawks at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints35
- Trae YoungAssists10
- Bruno FernandoRebounds8
Cavaliers- Jarrett AllenPoints25
- Donovan MitchellAssists13
- Jarrett AllenRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–127
- Q421.0Onyeka Okongwu makes 22-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)119–127
- Q426.0shot clock turnover116–127
- Q447.1Jarrett Allen defensive rebound116–127
- Q450.1Dejounte Murray misses two point shot116–127
- Q41:01Caris LeVert makes 1-foot dunk (Isaac Okoro assists)116–127
- Q41:02Trae Young bad pass (Isaac Okoro steals)116–125
- Q41:12Donovan Mitchell makes 15-foot pullup jump shot116–125
- Q41:30Trae Young makes free throw 2 of 2116–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:35Dean Wade makes 24-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)ATL 3 – 5 CLE · CLE 60% → 66% +6CLE 60% → 66%+6 pts
- Q33:43Donovan Mitchell makes 22-foot three point jumper (Craig Porter assists)ATL 74 – 84 CLE · CLE 79% → 86% +7CLE 79% → 86%+7 pts
- Q49:59Trae Young makes 37-foot three pointerATL 90 – 96 CLE · ATL 12% → 20% +8ATL 12% → 20%+8 pts
- Q48:55Isaac Okoro makes 22-foot three point jumper (Georges Niang assists)ATL 92 – 101 CLE · CLE 81% → 89% +8CLE 81% → 89%+8 pts
- Q48:10Donovan Mitchell makes 26-foot three point jumper (Max Strus assists)ATL 94 – 104 CLE · CLE 84% → 92% +7CLE 84% → 92%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cavaliers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -3.5
- CLE 63%
- Fair odds
- CLE -165
- ATL +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 115.6 – 119.4 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | ATL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +28 | +2 | ATL: Missing Bogdan Bogdanovic −19 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · CLE: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +94 Elo | CLE 63.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 62.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 62.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30122.6 | Points scored | 110.525th of 30 |
| 28th of 30122.5 | Points allowed | 110.98th of 30 |
| 18th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.6 | Offense rating | 110.023rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30117.5 | Defense rating | 110.49th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30103.9 | Pace | 99.823rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 14th of 306–7 | Road vs home | 6–619th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+28 Elo- Bogdan Bogdanovic injury/illness−19 Elo
Cavaliers
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 0–1 CLE in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.