Cleveland Cavaliers at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Darius GarlandPoints36
- Darius GarlandAssists5
- Tristan ThompsonRebounds13
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints20
- Paolo BancheroAssists4
- Paolo BancheroRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game94–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter94–104
- Q45.1Paolo Banchero defensive rebound94–104
- Q48.2Donovan Mitchell misses 28-foot three point jumper94–104
- Q415.2Franz Wagner makes 4-foot dunk (Jalen Suggs assists)94–104
- Q418.1Isaac Okoro bad pass (Jonathan Isaac steals)94–102
- Q431.1Jonathan Isaac makes 2-foot dunk (Paolo Banchero assists)94–102
- Q436.1Jalen Suggs defensive rebound94–100
- Q439.1Dean Wade misses 21-foot jumper94–100
- Q441.0Cavaliers offensive team rebound94–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:27Joe Ingles makes 27-foot three point jumper (Cole Anthony assists)CLE 37 – 34 ORL · ORL 43% → 50% +8ORL 43% → 50%+8 pts
- Q23:37Jalen Suggs makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (Goga Bitadze assists)CLE 40 – 43 ORL · ORL 57% → 65% +8ORL 57% → 65%+8 pts
- Q21:54Donovan Mitchell makes 25-foot three point jumper (Max Strus assists)CLE 47 – 47 ORL · CLE 35% → 43% +8CLE 35% → 43%+8 pts
- Q39:23Darius Garland makes 23-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)CLE 58 – 56 ORL · CLE 40% → 50% +9CLE 40% → 50%+9 pts
- Q38:20Jalen Suggs makes 26-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)CLE 60 – 59 ORL · ORL 44% → 53% +10ORL 44% → 53%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Magic 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -3
- ORL 62%
- Fair odds
- ORL -149
- CLE +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 110.0 – 113.1 ORL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +36 | +53 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +83 Elo | ORL 61.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 59.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 59.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30111.3 | Points scored | 114.513th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.6 | Points allowed | 109.66th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +4.95th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30110.2 | Offense rating | 111.917th of 30 |
| 8th of 30109.5 | Defense rating | 107.12nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.3 | Pace | 102.37th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Road vs home | 10–12nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 1–0 ORL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.