Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints31
- Donovan MitchellAssists6
- Jarrett AllenRebounds10
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints27
- Jaylen BrownAssists5
- Jayson TatumRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–116
- Q414.1Darius Garland makes 27-foot three point jumper (Caris LeVert assists)107–116
- Q417.0Max Strus offensive rebound104–116
- Q419.1Caris LeVert misses 28-foot three point jumper104–116
- Q429.1Al Horford makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)104–116
- Q451.0Caris LeVert makes free throw 2 of 2104–113
- Q451.0Al Horford enters the game for Kristaps Porzingis103–113
- Q451.0Caris LeVert makes free throw 1 of 2103–113
- Q451.0Jrue Holiday shooting foul102–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34:54Sam Hauser makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)CLE 75 – 83 BOS · BOS 76% → 83% +7BOS 76% → 83%+7 pts
- Q31.1Darius Garland makes 28-foot step back jumpshotCLE 87 – 90 BOS · CLE 20% → 30% +10CLE 20% → 30%+10 pts
- Q411:41Jayson Tatum makes 16-foot two point shotCLE 87 – 92 BOS · BOS 71% → 77% +7BOS 71% → 77%+7 pts
- Q410:59Jayson Tatum makes 26-foot three point jumperCLE 87 – 95 BOS · BOS 78% → 86% +9BOS 78% → 86%+9 pts
- Q45:31Derrick White makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)CLE 95 – 104 BOS · BOS 86% → 94% +8BOS 86% → 94%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -6
- BOS 73%
- Fair odds
- BOS -207
- CLE +207 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 109.0 – 114.5 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1596 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +25 | +77 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +169 Elo | BOS 72.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 66.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 67.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30110.6 | Points scored | 117.47th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.7 | Points allowed | 109.04th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +8.42nd of 30 |
| 25th of 30109.9 | Offense rating | 116.57th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.0 | Defense rating | 108.24th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30100.0 | Pace | 99.824th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 7th of 307–5 | Road vs home | 11–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+77 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 0–1 BOS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.