Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints29
- Darius GarlandAssists7
- Max StrusRebounds9
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints25
- Jayson TatumAssists5
- Jayson TatumRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–120
- Q47.1shot clock turnover113–120
- Q431.1Derrick White defensive rebound113–120
- Q433.1Darius Garland misses 27-foot three point shot113–120
- Q437.0Max Strus defensive rebound113–120
- Q438.1Jayson Tatum misses two point shot113–120
- Q452.1Caris LeVert bad pass (Jaylen Brown steals)113–120
- Q458.1Caris LeVert defensive rebound113–120
- Q41:00Jayson Tatum misses 27-foot step back jumpshot113–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:42Caris LeVert makes 26-foot three point jumper (Isaac Okoro assists)CLE 95 – 94 BOS · CLE 32% → 44% +12CLE 32% → 44%+12 pts
- Q410:07Sam Hauser makes 27-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)CLE 99 – 99 BOS · BOS 46% → 60% +13BOS 46% → 60%+13 pts
- Q48:38Sam Hauser makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)CLE 101 – 104 BOS · BOS 59% → 72% +13BOS 59% → 72%+13 pts
- Q47:37Max Strus makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tristan Thompson assists)CLE 104 – 104 BOS · CLE 27% → 42% +14CLE 27% → 42%+14 pts
- Q44:28Jayson Tatum makes 26-foot three pointerCLE 106 – 113 BOS · BOS 80% → 91% +11BOS 80% → 91%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -7
- BOS 75%
- Fair odds
- BOS -239
- CLE +239 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 107.9 – 114.6 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1592 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | CLE on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +24 | +68 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +193 Elo | BOS 75.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 69.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 70.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30110.5 | Points scored | 117.37th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.3 | Points allowed | 108.83rd of 30 |
| 19th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +8.52nd of 30 |
| 24th of 30109.7 | Offense rating | 116.37th of 30 |
| 8th of 30109.5 | Defense rating | 107.94th of 30 |
| 21st of 30100.1 | Pace | 99.824th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 4th of 307–4 | Road vs home | 10–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+68 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.