Houston Rockets at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Fred VanVleetPoints27
- Fred VanVleetAssists17
- Fred VanVleetRebounds8
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints37
- Donovan MitchellAssists6
- Caris LeVertRebounds7
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game130–135
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime130–135
- OT3.1Donovan Mitchell enters the game for Isaac Okoro130–135
- OT3.1Cavaliers offensive team rebound130–135
- OT3.1Max Strus misses free throw 1 of 1130–135
- OT3.1(00:03.4) [Rockets] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)130–135
- OT3.1Tari Eason away from play foul130–135
- OT4.0Fred VanVleet makes 36-foot three pointer (Dillon Brooks assists)130–135
- OT7.1Max Strus makes free throw 2 of 2127–135
- OT7.1Alperen Sengun enters the game for Jae'Sean Tate127–134
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:34Dillon Brooks makes 28-foot three point shot (Fred VanVleet assists)HOU 116 – 117 CLE · HOU 20% → 40% +20HOU 20% → 40%+20 pts
- Q43:14Max Strus makes 28-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)HOU 116 – 120 CLE · CLE 60% → 81% +20CLE 60% → 81%+20 pts
- Q42:45Fred VanVleet makes 28-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)HOU 119 – 120 CLE · HOU 18% → 39% +22HOU 18% → 39%+22 pts
- Q41:59Alperen Sengun makes 2-foot dunk (Tari Eason assists)HOU 121 – 122 CLE · HOU 21% → 38% +17HOU 21% → 38%+17 pts
- Q436.1Alperen Sengun makes free throw 2 of 2HOU 122 – 122 CLE · HOU 31% → 49% +18HOU 31% → 49%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cavaliers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -1.5
- CLE 56%
- Fair odds
- CLE -145
- HOU +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 107.2 – 110.1 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | HOU on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +27 | +12 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | HOU crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CLE +39 Elo | CLE 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 59.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30109.9 | Points scored | 111.124th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30106.1 | Points allowed | 111.28th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+3.8 | Margin | −0.120th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30110.2 | Offense rating | 110.622nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30106.4 | Defense rating | 110.710th of 30 |
| 26th of 3099.2 | Pace | 99.923rd of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–9 | Road vs home | 7–619th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.