Detroit Pistons at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints43
- Cade CunninghamAssists7
- Jaden IveyRebounds8
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints31
- Trae YoungAssists15
- Clint CapelaRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–130
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–130
- Q415.0Bojan Bogdanovic lost ball turnover (Dejounte Murray steals)124–130
- Q417.0Joe Harris enters the game for James Wiseman124–130
- Q417.0Pistons Full timeout124–130
- Q417.0Dejounte Murray makes free throw 2 of 2124–130
- Q417.0Clint Capela enters the game for Onyeka Okongwu124–129
- Q417.0Hawks offensive team rebound124–129
- Q417.0Dejounte Murray misses free throw 1 of 2124–129
- Q417.0Alec Burks personal foul124–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q39:53De'Andre Hunter makes 25-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)DET 59 – 68 ATL · ATL 82% → 87% +5ATL 82% → 87%+5 pts
- Q39:08Trae Young makes 25-foot three pointerDET 63 – 71 ATL · ATL 80% → 86% +6ATL 80% → 86%+6 pts
- Q48:07Cade Cunningham makes 27-foot three point jumper (Bojan Bogdanovic assists)DET 102 – 109 ATL · DET 6% → 12% +6DET 6% → 12%+6 pts
- Q45:47Marvin Bagley III makes alley oop dunk shot (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 109 – 115 ATL · DET 8% → 13% +5DET 8% → 13%+5 pts
- Q45:27De'Andre Hunter makes 23-foot three point jumper (Clint Capela assists)DET 109 – 118 ATL · ATL 88% → 95% +7ATL 88% → 95%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hawks 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -9
- ATL 81%
- Fair odds
- ATL -297
- DET +297 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 115.9 – 124.2 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1349 | 1461 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −49 | +40 | DET: Weaker than its recent lineups · ATL: Missing Bogdan Bogdanovic −15 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DET crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ATL +248 Elo | ATL 80.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 74.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 74.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30108.3 | Points scored | 122.43rd of 30 |
| 25th of 30120.4 | Points allowed | 122.728th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−12.1 | Margin | −0.221st of 30 |
| 28th of 30105.5 | Offense rating | 117.64th of 30 |
| 25th of 30117.3 | Defense rating | 117.827th of 30 |
| 6th of 30102.7 | Pace | 103.84th of 30 |
| 30th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 2–825th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–12 | Road vs home | 3–724th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
−49 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
+40 Elo- Bogdan Bogdanovic right ankle injury−15 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 0–1 ATL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.