Dallas Mavericks at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Olivier-Maxence ProsperPoints20
- Dexter DennisAssists4
- Richaun HolmesRebounds8
Rockets- Alperen SengunPoints22
- Jalen GreenAssists4
- Alperen SengunRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game96–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter96–122
- Q40.0(00:00) [Mavericks] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL STANDS)96–122
- Q42.1shot clock turnover96–122
- Q426.1Olivier-Maxence Prosper makes free throw 2 of 296–122
- Q426.1Olivier-Maxence Prosper makes free throw 1 of 295–122
- Q426.1Cam Whitmore personal foul94–122
- Q437.1Cam Whitmore makes driving layup94–122
- Q439.1Cam Whitmore offensive rebound94–120
- Q442.0Cam Whitmore misses 26-foot three point jumper94–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:10Markieff Morris makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jaden Hardy assists)DAL 3 – 2 HOU · DAL 31% → 37% +6DAL 31% → 37%+6 pts
- Q19:59Dillon Brooks makes 26-foot three point shot (Jalen Green assists)DAL 3 – 5 HOU · HOU 63% → 69% +6HOU 63% → 69%+6 pts
- Q148.1A.J. Lawson makes two point shotDAL 17 – 18 HOU · DAL 30% → 35% +4DAL 30% → 35%+4 pts
- Q135.1Jeff Green makes driving layup (Jalen Green assists)DAL 17 – 20 HOU · HOU 65% → 70% +4HOU 65% → 70%+4 pts
- Q14.2Jalen Green makes 28-foot step back jumpshotDAL 17 – 23 HOU · HOU 70% → 76% +6HOU 70% → 76%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockets 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -5.5
- HOU 71%
- Fair odds
- HOU -185
- DAL +185 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 112.9 – 117.6 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −53 | +16 | DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +154 Elo | HOU 70.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 64.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 64.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30119.0 | Points scored | 111.424th of 30 |
| 21st of 30117.7 | Points allowed | 108.42nd of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.3 | Margin | +3.09th of 30 |
| 8th of 30116.6 | Offense rating | 111.220th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30115.4 | Defense rating | 108.22nd of 30 |
| 9th of 30102.0 | Pace | 99.326th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 3rd of 309–5 | Road vs home | 11–24th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 1–0 HOU in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.