LA Clippers at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints30
- James HardenAssists11
- Kawhi LeonardRebounds10
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints28
- Luka DoncicAssists10
- Luka DoncicRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–111
- Q46.1shot clock turnover120–111
- Q418.1Terance Mann offensive rebound120–111
- Q422.1James Harden misses 33-foot three point jumper120–111
- Q431.1Dwight Powell enters the game for Luka Doncic120–111
- Q431.1A.J. Lawson enters the game for Derrick Jones Jr.120–111
- Q431.1Olivier-Maxence Prosper enters the game for Tim Hardaway Jr.120–111
- Q431.1Clippers Full timeout120–111
- Q443.1Luka Doncic makes free throw 2 of 2120–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:03James Harden makes 27-foot step back jumpshotLAC 100 – 98 DAL · LAC 46% → 62% +16LAC 46% → 62%+16 pts
- Q45:05Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 23-foot three pointer (Derrick Jones Jr. assists)LAC 104 – 105 DAL · DAL 36% → 55% +19DAL 36% → 55%+19 pts
- Q43:33Amir Coffey makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kawhi Leonard assists)LAC 109 – 108 DAL · LAC 36% → 59% +23LAC 36% → 59%+23 pts
- Q42:38Luka Doncic makes 10-foot two point shotLAC 111 – 110 DAL · DAL 24% → 40% +16DAL 24% → 40%+16 pts
- Q42:18Norman Powell makes 2-foot layup (Kawhi Leonard assists)LAC 113 – 110 DAL · LAC 60% → 77% +17LAC 60% → 77%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Clippers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -3.5
- LAC 64%
- Fair odds
- LAC -120
- DAL +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 118.5 – 117.1 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1574 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +85 | +42 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | DAL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | LAC +102 Elo | LAC 64.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 54.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30117.0 | Points scored | 119.36th of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.7 | Points allowed | 117.622nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+6.3 | Margin | +1.712th of 30 |
| 9th of 30116.1 | Offense rating | 116.66th of 30 |
| 7th of 30109.9 | Defense rating | 115.023rd of 30 |
| 20th of 30100.3 | Pace | 102.49th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 18th of 305–7 | Road vs home | 7–516th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+85 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
+42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAC 1–1 DAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.