Dallas Mavericks at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints40
- Luka DoncicAssists10
- Luka DoncicRebounds12
Trail Blazers- Anfernee SimonsPoints33
- Anfernee SimonsAssists6
- Deandre AytonRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game131–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter131–120
- Q46.1shot clock turnover131–120
- Q429.1Olivier-Maxence Prosper defensive rebound131–120
- Q432.0Jerami Grant misses 25-foot three point jumper131–120
- Q438.0Olivier-Maxence Prosper enters the game for Luka Doncic131–120
- Q438.0A.J. Lawson enters the game for Derrick Jones Jr.131–120
- Q438.0Greg Brown III enters the game for Tim Hardaway Jr.131–120
- Q438.0Jaden Hardy enters the game for Grant Williams131–120
- Q438.0Trail Blazers Full timeout131–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:21Anfernee Simons makes 27-foot step back jumpshot (Scoot Henderson assists)DAL 23 – 30 POR · POR 46% → 53% +7POR 46% → 53%+7 pts
- Q13:06Luka Doncic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Seth Curry assists)DAL 26 – 30 POR · DAL 47% → 54% +7DAL 47% → 54%+7 pts
- Q12.1Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 29-foot three pointer (Luka Doncic assists)DAL 36 – 39 POR · DAL 48% → 55% +7DAL 48% → 55%+7 pts
- Q211:48Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 29-foot three point jumper (Dante Exum assists)DAL 39 – 39 POR · DAL 55% → 62% +7DAL 55% → 62%+7 pts
- Q48:40Seth Curry makes 28-foot three pointer (Olivier-Maxence Prosper assists)DAL 115 – 105 POR · DAL 84% → 92% +7DAL 84% → 92%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mavericks 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -4
- DAL 66%
- Fair odds
- DAL -180
- POR +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 117.1 – 112.7 POR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1433 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +61 | −26 | DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · POR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +116 Elo | DAL 66.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 64.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 64.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30119.4 | Points scored | 106.829th of 30 |
| 21st of 30117.0 | Points allowed | 113.715th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.4 | Margin | −6.925th of 30 |
| 6th of 30116.6 | Offense rating | 105.329th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30114.3 | Defense rating | 112.113th of 30 |
| 7th of 30102.5 | Pace | 100.022nd of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 1st of 308–4 | Road vs home | 2–726th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+61 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
−26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 1–0 POR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.