Utah Jazz at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Collin SextonPoints27
- Kelly OlynykAssists7
- Walker KesslerRebounds10
Trail Blazers- Scoot HendersonPoints23
- Scoot HendersonAssists10
- Deandre AytonRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–114
- Q419.0Scoot Henderson makes 26-foot three pointer (Skylar Mays assists)122–114
- Q426.2Micah Potter vs. Kris Murray (Jabari Walker gains possession)122–111
- Q430.1(00:30.8) [Jazz] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)122–111
- Q430.1Kris Murray defensive rebound122–111
- Q435.1Taylor Hendricks misses 25-foot three point jumper122–111
- Q447.2Duop Reath makes 3-foot two point shot (Skylar Mays assists)122–111
- Q456.1Duop Reath defensive rebound122–109
- Q458.1Kris Dunn misses driving floating jump shot122–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:40Malcolm Brogdon makes 30-foot three point jumper (Scoot Henderson assists)UTAH 32 – 28 POR · POR 41% → 48% +7POR 41% → 48%+7 pts
- Q211:47Anfernee Simons makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jabari Walker assists)UTAH 38 – 33 POR · POR 38% → 45% +7POR 38% → 45%+7 pts
- Q210:46Malcolm Brogdon makes 26-foot three point jumper (Scoot Henderson assists)UTAH 40 – 36 POR · POR 40% → 47% +7POR 40% → 47%+7 pts
- Q29:45Malcolm Brogdon makes 22-foot three point jumper (Anfernee Simons assists)UTAH 42 – 39 POR · POR 42% → 49% +7POR 42% → 49%+7 pts
- Q27:47Taylor Hendricks makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Talen Horton-Tucker assists)UTAH 51 – 41 POR · UTAH 61% → 68% +7UTAH 61% → 68%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Trail Blazers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -3
- POR 61%
- Fair odds
- POR -138
- UTAH +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 111.7 – 114.2 POR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1420 | 1444 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | UTAH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −10 | −30 | UTAH: Missing Luka Samanic −3 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · POR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +81 Elo | POR 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 57.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30111.6 | Points scored | 106.529th of 30 |
| 25th of 30120.0 | Points allowed | 113.315th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−8.4 | Margin | −6.825th of 30 |
| 26th of 30108.8 | Offense rating | 104.928th of 30 |
| 26th of 30117.0 | Defense rating | 111.613th of 30 |
| 15th of 30101.3 | Pace | 100.122nd of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–11 | Road vs home | 2–626th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−10 Elo- Luka Samanic illness−3 Elo
Trail Blazers
−30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
UTAH 2–1 POR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.