Dallas Mavericks at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints38
- Luka DoncicAssists8
- Luka DoncicRebounds11
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints22
- Nikola JokicAssists7
- Nikola JokicRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–130
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–130
- Q410.0shot clock turnover104–130
- Q431.1Jaden Hardy makes 25-foot three pointer104–130
- Q438.1Greg Brown III defensive rebound101–130
- Q443.1Zeke Nnaji misses 23-foot three point jumper101–130
- Q447.1Collin Gillespie offensive rebound101–130
- Q450.0Julian Strawther misses 20-foot pullup jump shot101–130
- Q41:03Richaun Holmes makes alley oop dunk shot (Jaden Hardy assists)101–130
- Q41:08Richaun Holmes defensive rebound99–130
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q211:02Luka Doncic makes 26-foot step back jumpshotDAL 26 – 28 DEN · DAL 29% → 36% +7DAL 29% → 36%+7 pts
- Q210:09Grant Williams makes 24-foot three pointer (Olivier-Maxence Prosper assists)DAL 29 – 30 DEN · DAL 32% → 38% +7DAL 32% → 38%+7 pts
- Q26:29Michael Porter Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope assists)DAL 37 – 46 DEN · DEN 73% → 79% +6DEN 73% → 79%+6 pts
- Q21:17Luka Doncic makes 24-foot step back jumpshotDAL 56 – 63 DEN · DAL 18% → 24% +6DAL 18% → 24%+6 pts
- Q36:38Jamal Murray makes 25-foot three pointerDAL 70 – 80 DEN · DEN 78% → 84% +7DEN 78% → 84%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -3.5
- DEN 63%
- Fair odds
- DEN -156
- DAL +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 115.7 – 119.1 DEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +59 | +109 | DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DAL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +94 Elo | DEN 63.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 60.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 60.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30119.9 | Points scored | 114.715th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30117.1 | Points allowed | 110.86th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.8 | Margin | +3.97th of 30 |
| 6th of 30116.9 | Offense rating | 115.610th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30114.2 | Defense rating | 111.711th of 30 |
| 7th of 30102.6 | Pace | 99.227th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–4 | Road vs home | 10–26th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+59 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+109 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 0–1 DEN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.