New Orleans Pelicans at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Trey Murphy IIIPoints28
- Brandon IngramAssists6
- Brandon IngramRebounds7
Cavaliers- Dean WadePoints20
- Craig Porter Jr.Assists11
- Dean WadeRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–104
- Q411.0Tristan Thompson makes tip shot123–104
- Q411.0Tristan Thompson offensive rebound123–102
- Q414.1Emoni Bates misses 4-foot two point shot123–102
- Q419.1Tristan Thompson defensive rebound123–102
- Q421.2Jordan Hawkins misses two point shot123–102
- Q439.0Emoni Bates makes 29-foot three point jumper (Craig Porter assists)123–102
- Q448.2Jeremiah Robinson-Earl makes 1-foot dunk (Naji Marshall assists)123–99
- Q452.1Dyson Daniels defensive rebound121–99
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:36Max Strus makes 30-foot three point jumper (Caris LeVert assists)NO 51 – 49 CLE · CLE 27% → 34% +7CLE 27% → 34%+7 pts
- Q24:16Trey Murphy III makes 29-foot three point jumper (Brandon Ingram assists)NO 54 – 49 CLE · NO 66% → 73% +7NO 66% → 73%+7 pts
- Q38:35Craig Porter makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (Isaac Okoro assists)NO 68 – 62 CLE · CLE 17% → 24% +7CLE 17% → 24%+7 pts
- Q38:21Trey Murphy III makes 25-foot three point jumper (Herbert Jones assists)NO 71 – 62 CLE · NO 76% → 83% +7NO 76% → 83%+7 pts
- Q34:36Dean Wade makes 24-foot three point shot (Craig Porter assists)NO 80 – 76 CLE · CLE 20% → 29% +8CLE 20% → 29%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pelicans 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -3.5
- NO 65%
- Fair odds
- NO -175
- CLE +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 116.8 – 112.5 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | CLE on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +90 | −23 | NO: Missing Zion Williamson −21 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | NO crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NO +105 Elo | NO 64.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 63.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 63.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30115.9 | Points scored | 112.422nd of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.9 | Points allowed | 112.110th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.0 | Margin | +0.417th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.9 | Offense rating | 111.519th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.9 | Defense rating | 111.210th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.7 | Pace | 99.923rd of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 10th of 307–7 | Road vs home | 9–615th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+90 Elo- Zion Williamson non-covid illness−21 Elo
Cavaliers
−23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.