Utah Jazz at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints26
- Talen Horton-TuckerAssists11
- Lauri MarkkanenRebounds10
Cavaliers- Sam MerrillPoints27
- Caris LeVertAssists7
- Jarrett AllenRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–124
- Q45.1shot clock turnover116–124
- Q428.1Max Strus defensive rebound116–124
- Q431.2Lauri Markkanen misses 30-foot three point jumper116–124
- Q435.1Caris LeVert makes free throw 2 of 2116–124
- Q435.1Isaac Okoro enters the game for Sam Merrill116–123
- Q435.1Cavaliers offensive team rebound116–123
- Q435.1Caris LeVert misses free throw 1 of 2116–123
- Q435.1Collin Sexton personal foul116–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:10Max Strus makes 33-foot three point jumper (Jarrett Allen assists)UTAH 77 – 78 CLE · CLE 47% → 57% +10CLE 47% → 57%+10 pts
- Q35:17Caris LeVert makes 26-foot step back jumpshotUTAH 79 – 81 CLE · CLE 50% → 60% +10CLE 50% → 60%+10 pts
- Q33:55Caris LeVert makes 31-foot three point jumper (Tristan Thompson assists)UTAH 84 – 84 CLE · CLE 42% → 53% +11CLE 42% → 53%+11 pts
- Q411:42Sam Merrill makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tristan Thompson assists)UTAH 93 – 95 CLE · CLE 48% → 61% +12CLE 48% → 61%+12 pts
- Q410:57Sam Merrill makes 26-foot three point jumper (Isaac Okoro assists)UTAH 93 – 98 CLE · CLE 61% → 73% +12CLE 61% → 73%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cavaliers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -3
- CLE 61%
- Fair odds
- CLE -124
- UTAH +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 113.9 – 115.6 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1441 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +28 | −34 | UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | UTAH crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CLE +80 Elo | CLE 61.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 55.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30112.2 | Points scored | 112.023rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30119.5 | Points allowed | 111.99th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−7.3 | Margin | +0.119th of 30 |
| 25th of 30109.7 | Offense rating | 111.121st of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.9 | Defense rating | 111.010th of 30 |
| 16th of 30101.1 | Pace | 99.923rd of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–12 | Road vs home | 8–617th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
+28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
−34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.