Brooklyn Nets at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Cam ThomasPoints32
- Spencer DinwiddieAssists11
- Spencer DinwiddieRebounds8
Jazz- Talen Horton-TuckerPoints27
- Talen Horton-TuckerAssists6
- Walker KesslerRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–125
- Q49.2Trendon Watford makes 26-foot three point jumper (Royce O'Neale assists)108–125
- Q417.0Luka Samanic makes 27-foot three point jumper (Collin Sexton assists)105–125
- Q439.0Luka Samanic defensive rebound105–122
- Q440.0Day'Ron Sharpe misses free throw 1 of 1105–122
- Q440.0Luka Samanic shooting foul105–122
- Q440.0Day'Ron Sharpe makes two point shot105–122
- Q440.0Day'Ron Sharpe offensive rebound103–122
- Q440.2Trendon Watford misses two point shot103–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:54Cam Thomas makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cameron Johnson assists)BKN 75 – 72 UTAH · BKN 53% → 63% +10BKN 53% → 63%+10 pts
- Q32:35Collin Sexton makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kris Dunn assists)BKN 78 – 80 UTAH · UTAH 44% → 55% +11UTAH 44% → 55%+11 pts
- Q31:59John Collins makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ochai Agbaji assists)BKN 78 – 83 UTAH · UTAH 55% → 66% +11UTAH 55% → 66%+11 pts
- Q31:24Lauri Markkanen makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kris Dunn assists)BKN 80 – 86 UTAH · UTAH 59% → 70% +11UTAH 59% → 70%+11 pts
- Q410:21Dorian Finney-Smith makes 22-foot three point jumper (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)BKN 87 – 92 UTAH · BKN 20% → 31% +11BKN 20% → 31%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BKN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BKN -3.5
- BKN 64%
- Fair odds
- BKN -121
- UTAH +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 117.0 – 115.6 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1421 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +51 | +16 | BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups · UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | BKN crossed 1 time zone and UTAH crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BKN +98 Elo | BKN 63.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BKN 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BKN 54.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30116.4 | Points scored | 111.723rd of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.7 | Points allowed | 120.024th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.7 | Margin | −8.326th of 30 |
| 11th of 30115.6 | Offense rating | 109.226th of 30 |
| 20th of 30113.9 | Defense rating | 117.325th of 30 |
| 20th of 30100.3 | Pace | 101.116th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 17th of 305–7 | Road vs home | 7–515th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
+51 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.