Utah Jazz at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Collin SextonPoints28
- Kelly OlynykAssists13
- Lauri MarkkanenRebounds6
Kings- Keegan MurrayPoints47
- Domantas SabonisAssists8
- Domantas SabonisRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–125
- Q411.1shot clock turnover104–125
- Q431.1Sasha Vezenkov defensive rebound104–125
- Q435.0Johnny Juzang misses 25-foot three point jumper104–125
- Q446.1Sasha Vezenkov makes 26-foot three point jumper (Juan Toscano-Anderson assists)104–125
- Q447.0Juan Toscano-Anderson offensive rebound104–122
- Q449.1Juan Toscano-Anderson misses layup104–122
- Q41:02Collin Sexton makes driving layup (Johnny Juzang assists)104–122
- Q41:10Micah Potter defensive rebound102–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:50Keegan Murray makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kevin Huerter assists)UTAH 4 – 10 SAC · SAC 64% → 70% +6SAC 64% → 70%+6 pts
- Q17:17Collin Sexton makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kelly Olynyk assists)UTAH 12 – 14 SAC · UTAH 32% → 38% +6UTAH 32% → 38%+6 pts
- Q14:41Malik Monk makes 23-foot three point jumper (Keon Ellis assists)UTAH 15 – 23 SAC · SAC 68% → 74% +6SAC 68% → 74%+6 pts
- Q28:34Harrison Barnes makes 23-foot three point jumper (Malik Monk assists)UTAH 29 – 38 SAC · SAC 71% → 77% +6SAC 71% → 77%+6 pts
- Q26:16Keegan Murray makes 27-foot three point jumper (Kevin Huerter assists)UTAH 35 – 44 SAC · SAC 71% → 78% +6SAC 71% → 78%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -3.5
- SAC 64%
- Fair odds
- SAC -140
- UTAH +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 116.4 – 119.0 SAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1432 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +36 | +14 | UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +101 Elo | SAC 64.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 58.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30112.0 | Points scored | 116.88th of 30 |
| 24th of 30119.8 | Points allowed | 117.122nd of 30 |
| 26th of 30−7.8 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 26th of 30109.4 | Offense rating | 113.414th of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.9 | Defense rating | 113.819th of 30 |
| 15th of 30101.2 | Pace | 102.011th of 30 |
| 17th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–11 | Road vs home | 8–310th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
UTAH 0–1 SAC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.