Brooklyn Nets at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Cam ThomasPoints41
- Spencer DinwiddieAssists14
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds12
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints37
- Chris PaulAssists11
- Kevon LooneyRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–124
- Q43.1Klay Thompson defensive rebound120–124
- Q46.0Spencer Dinwiddie misses 27-foot three point jumper120–124
- Q410.1Spencer Dinwiddie offensive rebound120–124
- Q410.1Cam Thomas misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot120–124
- Q417.1Stephen Curry makes two point shot (Brandin Podziemski assists)120–124
- Q422.0Brandin Podziemski defensive rebound120–122
- Q424.1Mikal Bridges misses driving layup120–122
- Q428.1Jonathan Kuminga enters the game for Kevon Looney120–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:36Stephen Curry makes 27-foot step back jumpshotBKN 106 – 109 GS · GS 49% → 67% +18GS 49% → 67%+18 pts
- Q43:50Mikal Bridges makes 23-foot three point shot (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)BKN 112 – 114 GS · BKN 18% → 36% +18BKN 18% → 36%+18 pts
- Q43:24Klay Thompson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)BKN 112 – 117 GS · GS 65% → 83% +19GS 65% → 83%+19 pts
- Q42:54Klay Thompson makes 27-foot step back jumpshot (Chris Paul assists)BKN 115 – 120 GS · GS 66% → 85% +19GS 66% → 85%+19 pts
- Q42:14Royce O'Neale makes 24-foot three point shot (Cameron Johnson assists)BKN 118 – 120 GS · BKN 12% → 32% +20BKN 12% → 32%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BKN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BKN -0.5
- BKN 53%
- Fair odds
- BKN -108
- GS +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 116.8 – 116.2 GS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +47 | +12 | BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BKN +19 Elo | BKN 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BKN 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BKN 52.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30116.3 | Points scored | 115.511th of 30 |
| 18th of 30114.3 | Points allowed | 115.520th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.0 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 9th of 30115.5 | Offense rating | 112.617th of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.5 | Defense rating | 112.715th of 30 |
| 20th of 30100.2 | Pace | 101.514th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–6 | Road vs home | 5–622nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
+47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.