Memphis Grizzlies at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Desmond BanePoints37
- Ja MorantAssists11
- Bismack BiyomboRebounds11
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints30
- Trae YoungAssists13
- Clint CapelaRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–119
- Q48.1Vince Williams Jr. defensive rebound125–119
- Q412.0Bogdan Bogdanovic misses 27-foot three point jumper125–119
- Q413.1Xavier Tillman enters the game for Ja Morant125–119
- Q413.1Hawks Full timeout125–119
- Q413.1Desmond Bane makes free throw 2 of 2125–119
- Q413.1Desmond Bane makes free throw 1 of 2124–119
- Q413.1Dejounte Murray personal take foul123–119
- Q415.1Trae Young makes 25-foot three pointer123–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q345.1Trae Young makes 27-foot step back jumpshot (Bogdan Bogdanovic assists)MEM 90 – 91 ATL · ATL 48% → 60% +12ATL 48% → 60%+12 pts
- Q410:58Ziaire Williams makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ja Morant assists)MEM 98 – 95 ATL · MEM 44% → 57% +13MEM 44% → 57%+13 pts
- Q48:28Saddiq Bey makes 23-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)MEM 104 – 102 ATL · ATL 31% → 45% +14ATL 31% → 45%+14 pts
- Q46:34Desmond Bane makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotMEM 109 – 106 ATL · MEM 46% → 62% +17MEM 46% → 62%+17 pts
- Q45:12Desmond Bane makes 22-foot three point jumper (Bismack Biyombo assists)MEM 113 – 106 ATL · MEM 70% → 84% +14MEM 70% → 84%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hawks 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -3.5
- ATL 64%
- Fair odds
- ATL -162
- MEM +162 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 115.0 – 118.7 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1444 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | ATL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | 0 | +68 | MEM: Usual rotation · ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MEM crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ATL +99 Elo | ATL 63.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 61.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 61.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30106.4 | Points scored | 122.83rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30112.1 | Points allowed | 122.928th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−5.7 | Margin | −0.120th of 30 |
| 30th of 30104.7 | Offense rating | 118.15th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.3 | Defense rating | 118.227th of 30 |
| 15th of 30101.2 | Pace | 103.75th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 16th of 306–8 | Road vs home | 4–724th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
+68 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.